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  • Darkpriest667

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    Impending recession? Economy going into the toilet? Want Soros people here when it happens?

    What's your basis? I'd like to understand...


    Economic history is his basis. The business cycle is absolute... We're in the longest recovery ever recorded, the bull market cannot last forever. There is an impending recession, there has been an impending recession since 2015.... If Hillary had been elected we'd be knee deep in it right now.

    Trump can't stave off the inevitability of the business cycle. Hopefully he can last until the next election.. if we can make it to 2020 and then have a recession we're in good shape.
     

    toddnjoyce

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    Sorry, was not my intention when I created this thread

    This ain't your fault; that boy speaks for himself. I haven't met ZW since he wasn't at the fall reunion or the summer shoot in San Antonio, so I don't know if he believes the stuff he posts or just wants to be contrary.

    Now, what I think what a lot of us passed up was to tell you that we hold a meet in April and October to get together, shoot the bull, and shoot the guns. Everyone's invited...we call it the reunion. Here's a look at the last get together.

    Hopefully you can make it to the next meet.
     

    Darkpriest667

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    This ain't your fault; that boy speaks for himself. I haven't met ZW since he wasn't at the fall reunion or the summer shoot in San Antonio, so I don't know if he believes the stuff he posts or just wants to be contrary.

    Now, what I think what a lot of us passed up was to tell you that we hold a meet in April and October to get together, shoot the bull, and shoot the guns. Everyone's invited...we call it the reunion. Here's a look at the last get together.

    Hopefully you can make it to the next meet.


    Its amazing how when we meet we give each other shit with a smile on here, but people that refuse to show up or just don't tend to not get that courtesy.... face to face matters. I was glad to meet you at the fall meet.
     

    toddnjoyce

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    Economic history is his basis. The business cycle is absolute... We're in the longest recovery ever recorded, the bull market cannot last forever. T

    A bear market does not beget a recession, which does not beget a financial crisis. And none of those things, despite what you may hear otherwise, is tied to any predictable or repeatable timeline.
     

    Darkpriest667

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    A bear market does not beget a recession, which does not beget a financial crisis. And none of those things, despite what you may hear otherwise, is tied to any predictable or repeatable timeline.

    businesscycle.png


    ^ this is exactly how it works... Although prevailing economic theory may be challenged with tons of automation and AI and the end of scarcity.
     

    toddnjoyce

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    View attachment 156871

    ^ this is exactly how it works... Although prevailing economic theory may be challenged with tons of automation and AI and the end of scarcity.
    Yes, that's over time, not tied to periodization. The gap between peaks or valleys isn't a set value. The height of the peaks and troughs isn't set, either, neither is the width of the wave.

    The use of recession in the chart implies 2 consecutive quarters of of negative GDP, which isn't always the case, it's the minimum and there is no maximum number of quarters. Scale is also an issue. 2 consecutive quarters of -0.1% GDP is much different than -2% followed by -1.5%, followed by -4.5%, followed by + 0.1%, followed by +0.2%).

    Honestly, probably the best indicator of market direction is the fed yield curve, which is the relationship between short and long term yield rates. It's been flat is and flirting with negative yield curve.

    When the yield curve is negative it generally indicates a downturn is possible, absent any intervention. The dip to negativity generally occurs prior to peak market as well. So, with a flattening yield curve, economic indicators become more important. As do certain geopolitical events.
     
    Last edited:

    dfwpi

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    Welcome. I was up in Haslet last week previewing a house for a client. They are looking to move to the area from Lubbock.

    Sent from my SM-G965U1 using Tapatalk
     

    bigwheel

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    Oct 19, 2018
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    Apple won’t bring jobs. They will import workers.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    There ya go. All the smart folks moved out of Austin when the cedar hackers left town in the late 70s. Nothing left down there now except for weirdos and assorted other hippies.
     

    Darkpriest667

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    Yes, that's over time, not tied to periodization. The gap between peaks or valleys isn't a set value. The height of the peaks and troughs isn't set, either, neither is the width of the wave.

    The use of recession in the chart implies 2 consecutive quarters of of negative GDP, which isn't always the case, it's the minimum and there is no maximum number of quarters. Scale is also an issue. 2 consecutive quarters of -0.1% GDP is much different than -2% followed by -1.5%, followed by -4.5%, followed by + 0.1%, followed by +0.2%).

    Honestly, probably the best indicator of market direction is the fed yield curve, which is the relationship between short and long term yield rates. It's been flat is and flirting with negative yield curve.

    When the yield curve is negative it generally indicates a downturn is possible, absent any intervention. The dip to negativity generally occurs prior to peak market as well. So, with a flattening yield curve, economic indicators become more important. As do certain geopolitical events.

    I'd hug you right now but it would be weird.
     

    Big Green

    In Christ Alone
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    5   0   0
    Mar 5, 2018
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    College Station
    I’ve flown over and through Cali many times as a Herc crewman. Yeah, it’s a pretty place but no where I wanted to live. One reason, among several others, I got out of the Corps was because I hadn’t been stationed there. I knew it was next and I didn’t know what I would do with my rifles. So I got out and am content with never leaving Texas again.

    Welcome, enjoy and leave the rest behind.
     
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