Coronavirus Epidemic, Part 2

[jrbfishn]

Here you go.

Sent by an idjit coffeeholic from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

 

[jrbfishn]

And data from Wichita County.
Pop. 132,000
Cases. 5350
Deaths. 79

Cases are about 4% of population.
Deaths are less than 1.5% of cases and less than .06% of population

So, where is the doom and gloom and the world is ending?

Sent by an idjit coffeeholic from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

 

[Big Green]

So Brazos county is doing good with less than 1% death rate, a total of 8401 cases and 81 deaths. But this is not the less than 0.01% mortality rate claimed by some, it is just under 1%. Your hospital is doing good or your people are tougher than in my community. Your ICU is at 75% capacity. Stay healthy.

And yet it is still nothing to live in fear over. I’ve gone to work everyday, been grocery shopping, gone to public pools several times, been to parks with the kids, shook hands, gone to church, been to the range several times. Heck, I still don’t, and never have, worn a mask in public. Don’t be nasty, and don’t live in fear. Politicians that have pushed shutdowns should be hung by the neck.

 

[rotor]

And data from Wichita County.
Pop. 132,000
Cases. 5350
Deaths. 79

Cases are about 4% of population.
Deaths are less than 1.5% of cases and less than .06% of population

So, where is the doom and gloom and the world is ending?

Sent by an idjit coffeeholic from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

Now you are changing things. Deaths are 0.06% of population you say. Cases are 4% of population. That proves nothing. Perhaps you can use that as a reason to have a lockdown again. I am sure you can find isolated areas where there are zero cases. The only way you calculate mortality is by the percentage of people with the disease that die of the disease. At least you admit that the mortality rate is 1.5% of cases. Exactly what I have been saying. Mortality rate depending on where you are is between 1 and 2%, closer to 2% for all of Texas. My only argument with all of this is that people that say the mortality rate is less than 0.01% are crazy as the mortality rate runs between 1-2%, closer to 2% in Texas. Do we agree on mortality rate or does it take more math?
Final thought, we know that the death rate is higher for people over 40, heart problems, other comorbidities. If you are a 17 year old healthy male reading this and you catch Covid you will most likely not die. If you are an 80 year old vegetable in a nursing home and you catch Covid you are likely to die. That is accepted I believe by all. That still doesn't change the overall mortality rate as it is what it is and if you are a young buck your chances of surviving Covid are great. For those of us past the buck years Covid is still a significant risk so don't let your guard down. Stay well people.

 

[rotor]

And yet it is still nothing to live in fear over. I’ve gone to work everyday, been grocery shopping, gone to public pools several times, been to parks with the kids, shook hands, gone to church, been to the range several times. Heck, I still don’t, and never have, worn a mask in public. Don’t be nasty, and don’t live in fear. Politicians that have pushed shutdowns should be hung by the neck.

I too do all those things but I may be more cautious than you as I am in the bad age group. I plan on living through this though and will not take extra efforts to become infected. Same for the rest of my family. Just be aware that Covid is increasing to record levels and it has not peaked yet so no reason to go and see if you are one of the 1.9% that doesn't survive if you catch it. Life is always a gamble. I paraphrase the old pilot saying about there being old pilots and bold pilots but no old bold pilots. I am an old pilot.

 

[rmantoo]

Where do you get your numbers from? How do you know that only 6% died from Covid? That is just BS and you know it. When a death certificate is filled out the cause of death is listed. Of those 19,470 deaths 100% had the cause of death as Covid. That is why they are listed as Covid deaths. Co-existing morbidities mean nothing. If 100 people get Covid expect that 2 will die from it directly. Maybe 6 months from now they would die from heart disease or something else, we all do die. But regardless of what you wish, right now if you have 100 friends with Covid positive expect that 2 will die from Covid.

That's not actually correct, imho.

The thing is, there is NO WAY we are anywhere near to having ACTUAL covid 19 infection numbers.

We have tested a ton of people, but since the symptoms in MANY people are so mild, there has to be a LOT of poeple who are undiagnosed. Factor in that number (whatever it may be) and whatever the actual mortality rate currently is MUST be even lower.

And since it is, literally, impossible to know exactly how many people are currently infected or have recovered, that 2% will be FAR less in reality.

 

[jrbfishn]

That's not actually correct, imho.

The thing is, there is NO WAY we are anywhere near to having ACTUAL covid 19 infection numbers.

We have tested a ton of people, but since the symptoms in MANY people are so mild, there has to be a LOT of poeple who are undiagnosed. Factor in that number (whatever it may be) and whatever the actual mortality rate currently is MUST be even lower.

And since it is, literally, impossible to know exactly how many people are currently infected or have recovered, that 2% will be FAR less in reality.

As he pointed out, neither of our numbers take into account the number of infected that never get tested that had no symptoms. Some say that number could be 5-10 times the number of known positives. Even if it is only twice the positives that means your numbers are half. And that is still with asymptomatic deaths from other causes.

Now you are changing things. Deaths are 0.06% of population you say. Cases are 4% of population. That proves nothing. Perhaps you can use that as a reason to have a lockdown again. I am sure you can find isolated areas where there are zero cases. The only way you calculate mortality is by the percentage of people with the disease that die of the disease. At least you admit that the mortality rate is 1.5% of cases. Exactly what I have been saying. Mortality rate depending on where you are is between 1 and 2%, closer to 2% for all of Texas. My only argument with all of this is that people that say the mortality rate is less than 0.01% are crazy as the mortality rate runs between 1-2%, closer to 2% in Texas. Do we agree on mortality rate or does it take more math?
Final thought, we know that the death rate is higher for people over 40, heart problems, other comorbidities. If you are a 17 year old healthy male reading this and you catch Covid you will most likely not die. If you are an 80 year old vegetable in a nursing home and you catch Covid you are likely to die. That is accepted I believe by all. That still doesn't change the overall mortality rate as it is what it is and if you are a young buck your chances of surviving Covid are great. For those of us past the buck years Covid is still a significant risk so don't let your guard down. Stay well people.

Not so. You can use whatever math you want to make it look worse than it is. If you want to, you can make math lie. That I can prove.
You say total population doesn't matter? If you are trying to control a narrative, that may be true. It's much more scary to make it seem like people are falling like raindrops in a thunderstorm than to say only 1 in 10,000 will die and almost nobody below the age of 30 or in good health to begin with.

I too do all those things but I may be more cautious than you as I am in the bad age group. I plan on living through this though and will not take extra efforts to become infected. Same for the rest of my family. Just be aware that Covid is increasing to record levels and it has not peaked yet so no reason to go and see if you are one of the 1.9% that doesn't survive if you catch it. Life is always a gamble. I paraphrase the old pilot saying about there being old pilots and bold pilots but no old bold pilots. I am an old pilot.

So you are in a susceptible age group? Guess what? So am I. Have a bad heart and bad lungs too.
But guess what else? Pneumonia and the flu have just as much, if not more, chance of killing me too. And they will kill FAR more young people than covid this year.
The biggest difference?
I don't let my fear of it run my life.
Or doctors that will kill more people with mistakes or arrogance than covid itself will kill.
Enjoy your fear. I will enjoy my life. However long or short it may be.

Sent by an idjit coffeeholic from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

 

[oldag]

Now you are changing things. Deaths are 0.06% of population you say. Cases are 4% of population. That proves nothing. Perhaps you can use that as a reason to have a lockdown again. I am sure you can find isolated areas where there are zero cases. The only way you calculate mortality is by the percentage of people with the disease that die of the disease. At least you admit that the mortality rate is 1.5% of cases. Exactly what I have been saying. Mortality rate depending on where you are is between 1 and 2%, closer to 2% for all of Texas. My only argument with all of this is that people that say the mortality rate is less than 0.01% are crazy as the mortality rate runs between 1-2%, closer to 2% in Texas. Do we agree on mortality rate or does it take more math?
Final thought, we know that the death rate is higher for people over 40, heart problems, other comorbidities. If you are a 17 year old healthy male reading this and you catch Covid you will most likely not die. If you are an 80 year old vegetable in a nursing home and you catch Covid you are likely to die. That is accepted I believe by all. That still doesn't change the overall mortality rate as it is what it is and if you are a young buck your chances of surviving Covid are great. For those of us past the buck years Covid is still a significant risk so don't let your guard down. Stay well people.

Glad you mentioned this rotor.

One thing everyone agrees upon is that many cases are unreported. Symptoms are mild to none in many people and so they never get tested.

A true mortality rate cannot be calculated using the figures you are utilizing. The reported "number of people with the disease" is smaller than reality. That makes your mortality rate in error on the high side. Also, as many have pointed out, the "COVID death" figures are inflated (e.g., death with the virus present - even though not cause of death - reported as well as "probable" cases where they don't even know if the virus was present). This also causes your mortality rate to be further erroneously high.

Go back to the cruise ship. This was the perfect scientific experiment (albeit unintentionally). No one left the ship. No one came on the ship. Everybody got exposed. In fact, the population was skewed to an older demographic ( Passengers had a mean age of 66.1 ), which would make the mortality rate higher than for the public. 3711 people on board, 14 deaths, 0.4% mortality rate.

Please stop participating in the spread of hysteria.

 

[oldag]

As he pointed out, neither of our numbers take into account the number of infected that never get tested that had no symptoms. Some say that number could be 5-10 times the number of known positives. Even if it is only twice the positives that means your numbers are half. And that is still with asymptomatic deaths from other causes.



Not so. You can use whatever math you want to make it look worse than it is. If you want to, you can make math lie. That I can prove.
You say total population doesn't matter? If you are trying to control a narrative, that may be true. It's much more scary to make it seem like people are falling like raindrops in a thunderstorm than to say only 1 in 10,000 will die and almost nobody below the age of 30 or in good health to begin with.



So you are in a susceptible age group? Guess what? So am I. Have a bad heart and bad lungs too.
But guess what else? Pneumonia and the flu have just as much, if not more, chance of killing me too. And they will kill FAR more young people than covid this year.
The biggest difference?
I don't let my fear of it run my life.
Or doctors that will kill more people with mistakes or arrogance than covid itself will kill.
Enjoy your fear. I will enjoy my life. However long or short it may be.

Sent by an idjit coffeeholic from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

Well said.

 

[seeker_two]

A link in the article you posted says this

"WICHITA CO. (KFDX/KJTL)— While many across the country question how many deaths were people with coronavirus who actually died for other reasons, local health officials said all Wichita County deaths are COVID-19 related, but not everyone died as a direct result of the disease.

Health Director Lou Kreidler said the county reports them as COVID related deaths because they were infected with COVID-19 at time of death."

TDCJ could make use of this. When they execute a death-row inmate, the doctor can list COD as COVID-19 related, and TDCJ gets extra funding. If an inmate dies in a shanking or a suicide, the doctor can list COD as COVID-19 related, and TDCJ gets extra funding.

We could keep TDCJ funded for decades this way!

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

 

[toddnjoyce]

I will say this again. The virus can’t be both highly contagious and highly lethal without running out of hosts very quickly.

 

[oldag]

I will say this again. The virus can’t be both highly contagious and highly lethal without running out of hosts very quickly.

Preach on, brother.

And masks aren't going to stop the virus. The only thing that will is reaching herd immunity.

 

[jrbfishn]

This is not a new article, but worth reading. The statistics and metrics are a lie.

Three Misleading, Dangerous Coronavirus Statistics

Although these figures don’t constitute lies or fake news, they are misleading and continue to lead the United States toward ineffective solutions.

www.forbes.com

Sent by an idjit coffeeholic from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

 

[benenglish]

I'm not jumping into this covid #s debate but I just wanted to say that the medical field isn't by the numbers, cut and dried, black and white etc. There is evidence based practice based on research but there is also opinion and decisions based on experience. It's a world where the Dr has to say certain words/ phrases in their dictation otherwise Medicare will not pay the hospital for the procedure they just performed. The hospital gives "guidance" to Dr's to make sure they get reimbursement. You can word things different ways to come to different conclusions and not lie.

I note that when I found my mother's body in my living room, there was no doctor around. The body was collected by a funeral home and we called the family physician. He did her death certificate in his office without ever seeing the body or asking any questions. The cause of death was a simple description of respiration stopping.

Hold on. I have a copy right here. It lists the cause of death and three conditions leading to the cause. After each item, it lists the "Approximate interval onset to death", i.e. how long before death the cause or condition happened. The listed cause and three precursors were:

Malignant Ventricular Arrhythmia - 45 seconds
Acute Myocardial Ischemia - 1 minute
Coronary Thrombosis - 1 minute
Coronary Atherosclerosis - years

That's 3/4 of a very precise timeline to be documented by someone who wasn't there and never saw the body.

It's also a completely generalized description of what happens when a heart stops, something that happens every time someone dies.

It's also not an accurate description of the primary precursors to her death. She died from complications due to surgery for her kidney cancer.

So all of the doctors in the country are perjuring themselves and lying on official documents to boost the number of covid deaths. ... Talk about stupid conspiracy theories. Do you really believe this?

I believe doctors are human, rushed, and, in some cases, feeling overwhelmed by a particular spreading condition that remains always foremost in their mind.

I also believe that doctors, like everyone else in the world, will often default to boilerplate language just to get a form done and off their to-do list.

I also know that people die of old age but that (theoretically) no doctor is allowed to enter "old age" as a cause of death. That means that I believe "cause of death" on a death certificate is often very, very debatable.

It's not a conspiracy theory to be open to the possibility that some official government forms are being filled out incorrectly due to a variety of very human factors.

I'll even be generous and say that profit may not even be the most front-and-center of those human factors.

 

[CyberWolf]

I will say this again. The virus can’t be both highly contagious and highly lethal without running out of hosts very quickly.

Unless it's actually 'Krippin Virus', which doesn't suffer from that limitation

 

[easy rider]

There's power to be gained through fear and division.

Never let a crisis go to waste.

Governmental power was gained through the 9/11 attacks, do you believe this crisis is any different?

 

[BRD@66]

Hey guys! I'm looking for a thread that demonstrates that "statistics are the work of the devil". Can anyone point me in the right direction?

 

[ZX9RCAM]

Hey guys! I'm looking for a thread that demonstrates that "statistics are the work of the devil". Can anyone point me in the right direction?

Just a sec.....















j/k

 

[Mowingmaniac 24/7]

C'mon man, some folks enjoy spreading hysteria, cuz it's loads o'fun!

Plus, they have the added benefit of sounding like they know stuff...

 

[easy rider]

Stuff? Elaborate!