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Coronavirus Epidemic, Part 2

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  • seeker_two

    My posts don't count....
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    That place east of Waco....
    Point of order. Y’all wonder why there is public distrust on all sides of this topic? A picture is worth a thousand words.

    559844617d238f11b1bbca0e801c8d8c.jpg


    That was taken yesterday in the state capitol. Notice elected officials have exempted themselves from King Abbot’s order.

    This is not an unusual self-exemption. Watch any White House propaganda conference. Notice the talking head does not wear a mask inside a federal building, in violation of her boss’ own Executive Order requiring it.

    Local and federal officials around the nation have done a good job of stating the use of their lawful power to force public behavior change is based on science, then ignore that science themselves. Watch your local newscast; no masks there, either.

    I’m not a scientist, but I have a hard time with do as I say, not as I do, especially when the sole argument being used to force compliance is “because, science”. Either the science applies equally to everybody, or it is not settled.

    Then I take a look at Florida, where we spent a week last Thanksgiving and hasn’t had a mask mandate since last September and everybody knows all the retirees flock to. As of today, NY’s state wide cumulative death rate per 100,000 people is 59% higher than FL’s.

    Let’s not just look at death rates, let’s also look at infection and hospitalization rates. The Tampa Bay Times did and partnered with politifact to do some research. You know what they found? Not much.

    “...it’s hard to establish causation: Is it the loose regulation that helps reduce infection rates, or is it the low infection rates that allow for looser regulations?”

    If causation can’t be established either way, that reinforces what I’ve said from the very beginning: if we think we know everything there is to be known with only the information we have today, then we are wrong, no matter what.

    I have no doubt many people have died and many more have gotten sick. What nobody knows is how many people have actually contracted the virus. That’s pretty damn important because it establishes the numerator and without it, all the math and science being done is based on assumptions of what the numerator is.

    I expect what will become known is that a whole host of factors from population density to overall health at time of infection and everything in between will have varying contributions to the outcomes.

    But one thing is certain: it is a very rare thing in America for .gov to compel it’s free citizens to change their daily behaviors at the flip of a switch. The last time I can think of would have been the blackout orders before and during WWII. Amazingly enough, compliance then wasn’t quite as universal as you’d be led to think, even in places where it should have logically been.

    In sum, if the science is as strong as it’s claimed to be, then let’s get serious about transparency around what factors are known to contribute to the various outcomes. Let those factors be openly argued in the court of public opinion. Explain why, in plain language, the disparity in rates occur despite similar regulatory environments, whether the be tight or loose.

    But don’t tell do as I say, not as I do. That’s just cheap and disingenuous.
    True. If masks worked, then politicians should be dropping dead by the thousands.....

    ....and the fact they are not makes me somewhat sad.....

    Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk
    Texas SOT
     

    bbbass

    Looking Up!!
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    NE Orygun
    In sum, if the science is as strong as it’s claimed to be, then let’s get serious about transparency around what factors are known to contribute to the various outcomes. Let those factors be openly argued in the court of public opinion. Explain why, in plain language, the disparity in rates occur despite similar regulatory environments, whether the be tight or loose.

    AFAIK/IMO, the science is not strong nor well known. This is a totally new virus to scientists and they are struggling to play catch up. We still don't know a lot about it, tho we know more than we did, and new facts are learned every day that may contradict what they thought they knew before. That and the virus mutating.

    I imagine the Spanish Flu was much the same. How long did it take for the world to get a handle on what was happening and how to deal with it back then?

    But the stuff Fauci is spewing is brown and thin. And that of the guvs of D run states. Purely politically motivated with "science" as the leverage.
     

    DubiousDan

    Trump 2024
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    Then I dtake a look at Floria, where we spent a week last Thanksgiving and hasn’t had a mask mandate since last September and everybody knows all the retirees flock to. As of today, NY’s state wide cumulative death rate per 100,000 people is 59% higher than FL’s.

    What puzzles me is why is California lower than Fl. and Texas.

    I have no doubt many people have died and many more have gotten sick. What nobody knows is how many people have actually contracted the virus. That’s pretty damn important because it establishes the numerator and without it, all the math and science being done is based on assumptions of what the numerator is

    True, my son has had no symptoms and was exposed to me, my daughter, and my brother in October (he lives with me) and to my wife who had it in December. He's never been tested so I don't know for sure but I can't imagine he's dodged the bullet after prolonged contact.
     

    DubiousDan

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    I don't know this news outlet, but if this story is true, it's a bit disturbing. Cuomo-level disturbing.
    What that fails to point out is that vaccines take a few weeks to be effective and considering the incubation period the people who died had it when they were vaccinated. A fine example of yellow journalism and fear mongering.
     

    V-Tach

    Watching While the Sheep Graze
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    I get mine tomorrow. Which one did you get? Any side effects?
    Moderna...had no problems with first dose, just soreness....second dose, injection site a slightly red, sore and tender to touch......feeling ok......not much different.......only had to wait 5 minutes post injection instead of 15....
     

    bbbass

    Looking Up!!
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    I don't know this news outlet, but if this story is true, it's a bit disturbing. Cuomo-level disturbing.

    I read the article in it's entirety and it sounds like ops normal to me... mass confusion. A lot of things that COULD be explained by other than "the vaccine gave them Covid", "the vaccine didn't prevent Covid", and "the vaccine killed them". It could have been a pretty sensational article if not read carefully.

    Coupla things. Their stats eventually boiled down to 26 severe allergic reactions in 800,000. Sounds reasonable. All told, the side effects were similar to flu vaccine.

    They also mentioned the Covid vaccine being made using aborted fetal cells somehow... anybody know anything about that? The website is a prolife website, so I'm not surprised they made that point, but is it true?
     

    DubiousDan

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    I read the article in it's entirety and it sounds like ops normal to me... mass confusion. A lot of things that COULD be explained by other than "the vaccine gave them Covid", "the vaccine didn't prevent Covid", and "the vaccine killed them". It could have been a pretty sensational article if not read carefully.

    Coupla things. Their stats eventually boiled down to 26 severe allergic reactions in 800,000. Sounds reasonable. All told, the side effects were similar to flu vaccine.

    They also mentioned the Covid vaccine being made using aborted fetal cells somehow... anybody know anything about that? The website is a prolife website, so I'm not surprised they made that point, but is it true?
    40+ million people in the US have been vaccinated and I've only heard of one person dying of an adverse reaction (not allergic reaction) and as demonstrated in this thread, some people don't read articles carefully. They just seem to just read sensational headlines. The NYT and other media know this and bury the truth deep in the articles where they know many people read far enough into the article to find.
     

    DubiousDan

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    Moderna...had no problems with first dose, just soreness....second dose, injection site a slightly red, sore and tender to touch......feeling ok......not much different.......only had to wait 5 minutes post injection instead of 15....
    I felt "yucky" and had a slight fever after the first dose and expect the same again. Moderna too.
     

    toddnjoyce

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    AFAIK/IMO, the science is not strong nor well known. This is a totally new virus to scientists and they are struggling to play catch up. We still don't know a lot about it, tho we know more than we did, and new facts are learned every day that may contradict what they thought they knew before. That and the virus mutating.

    I imagine the Spanish Flu was much the same. How long did it take for the world to get a handle on what was happening and how to deal with it back then?

    But the stuff Fauci is spewing is brown and thin. And that of the guvs of D run states. Purely politically motivated with "science" as the leverage.

    The knowledge gaps are specific to this bug, what is does to the body, how the body reacts, and why. Some environmental stuff, too. But a lot of the science is well known. Virology as a field has a history that precedes 2020. We’ve know for decades that viruses mutate, for example. That’s probably in the category of scientific law it’s been proven so many times.

    Spanish Flu pretty much ran it’s course over the span of two to three years. This viral outbreak may very well do the same thing...that we don’t know yet. In a decade we’ll have a ton more data collected, to include how long the outbreak ran, outcomes in statistically significant sizes of vaccinated vs unvaccinated populations, and whether or not it’s a new entrant on the endemic field.

    Setting personalities aside, the societal question that has to be answered is whether or not the juice was worth the squeeze. Hindsight plays a role in finding that answer.
     

    oldag

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    oldag

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    The knowledge gaps are specific to this bug, what is does to the body, how the body reacts, and why. Some environmental stuff, too. But a lot of the science is well known. Virology as a field has a history that precedes 2020. We’ve know for decades that viruses mutate, for example. That’s probably in the category of scientific law it’s been proven so many times.

    Spanish Flu pretty much ran it’s course over the span of two to three years. This viral outbreak may very well do the same thing...that we don’t know yet. In a decade we’ll have a ton more data collected, to include how long the outbreak ran, outcomes in statistically significant sizes of vaccinated vs unvaccinated populations, and whether or not it’s a new entrant on the endemic field.

    Setting personalities aside, the societal question that has to be answered is whether or not the juice was worth the squeeze. Hindsight plays a role in finding that answer.
    But that analysis in hindsight will be sorely hampered by all the exaggerated and outright false death counts.
     

    bbbass

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    The knowledge gaps are specific to this bug, what is does to the body, how the body reacts, and why. Some environmental stuff, too.

    Yes, that is what I meant when I said the science is not strong. I was referring to Covid 19.


    In a decade we’ll have a ton more data collected, to include how long the outbreak ran, outcomes in statistically significant sizes of vaccinated vs unvaccinated populations, and whether or not it’s a new entrant on the endemic field.

    Can't get there w/o going thru it in realtime. I wish we already knew what we are going to know in a decade. That's a silly thought, I know.
     

    toddnjoyce

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    Yes, that is what I meant when I said the science is not strong. I was referring to Covid 19.




    Can't get there w/o going thru it in realtime. I wish we already knew what we are going to know in a decade. That's a silly thought, I know.

    I don’t think it’s silly. We have a year’s worth of data on medical, economic, and societal impact. That all may be preliminary, but ten months ago decisions were being made base on models. There is value in a mid-stream look back at what was predicted vs what really happened.

    That kind of analysis should be occurring right now. I could probably pull the data and put together a comprehensive look back at year zero in about forty hours. I shouldn’t have to though with the dollars and brains working on this full time.
     
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