Covid-19 stupidity

[toddnjoyce]

It's based on the mathematics of viral spread. If 1 person infects 10, then those 10 infect 100, then those 100 infect 1,000, then those 1,000 infect 10,000, then those 10,000 infect 100,000 and so on. Exponential growth. This outbreak is teaching us a lot of things, including how deficient math education is in the US. Or maybe just on this forum.

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The thing is, viruses don’t spread exponentially, unchecked, forever. Branching slows to a stop due to a variety of factors as the population becomes less susceptible. Couple that with mutations and immunity development and it also can become more or less lethal and/or more or less transmissible.

It’s also teaching how deficient basic science education is in the US.

 

[pronstar]

The black plague ravaged Europe, unchecked...and even it didn’t grow exponentially forever.

Of course it also/eventually killed 1/3 of Europe...


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[plinkr]

All diseases do not necessarily spread that way. Look at the rest of the world to figure that out right now.

Common sense is uncommon today, sometimes even on this board.

Correct, not all diseases are spread this way, some aren't spread at all. But this one is. I used a 10 to 1 ratio as an example, but this could be higher or lower depending on the pathogen and also on our behavior.

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[plinkr]

The thing is, viruses don’t spread exponentially, unchecked, forever. Branching slows to a stop due to a variety of factors as the population becomes less susceptible. Couple that with mutations and immunity development and it also can become more or less lethal and/or more or less transmissible.

It’s also teaching how deficient basic science education is in the US.

Those are true. High lethality is actually not a good evolutionary strategy for any pathogen, so natural selection tends to favor nicer viruses over time. Agree with the deficient science education comment.

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[Vaquero]

https://www.texasguntalk.com/thread...hey’re-not-making-arrests.96524/#post-2052190

 

[pronstar]

Those are true. High lethality is actually not a good evolutionary strategy for any pathogen, so natural selection tends to favor nicer viruses over time. Agree with the deficient science education comment.

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The problem is that evolutionary strategy goes out the window when a virus jumps from one species to another.




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[Darkpriest667]

The problem is that evolutionary strategy goes out the window when a virus jumps from one species to another.




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Zoonotic viruses is where most pandemics have come from.

 

[pronstar]

Zoonotic viruses is where most pandemics have come from.

For sure.

But to address an aforementioned point, a virus that’s evolutionarily been “friendly” in one species over time, may not be so friendly when it jumps to another species.

Put another way, just because it doesn’t kill a monkey host, doesn’t necessarily mean it won’t kill a hooman host.


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[Darkpriest667]

For sure.

But to address an aforementioned point, a virus that’s evolutionarily been “friendly” in one species over time, may not be so friendly when it jumps to another species.

Put another way, just because it doesn’t kill a monkey host, doesn’t necessarily mean it won’t kill a hooman host.


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Ebola being a prime example.

 

[TheMailMan]

Ebola being a prime example.

I thought bats were the reservoir host?

 

[BRD@66]

I thought bats were the reservoir host?

No, now you're thinking about vampires.

 

[plinkr]

The problem is that evolutionary strategy goes out the window when a virus jumps from one species to another.




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Would you care to explain that comment? I would think that developing the ability to jump species would be a great evolutionary strategy, and once in the new host the standard rules apply.

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[pronstar]

Would you care to explain that comment? I would think that developing the ability to jump species would be a great evolutionary strategy, and once in the new host the standard rules apply.

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Evolution in the original host:
If the host dies, the virus dies.
So the evolutionary pathway favors infection without death, so the virus can replicate from person to person.

Virus jumps to another species host:
The evolutionary pathway doesn’t yet exist. The virus could potentially kill the host, as it hasn’t evolved to a more favorable symbiotic relationship.




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[plinkr]

Evolution in the original host:
If the host dies, the virus dies.
So the evolutionary pathway favors infection without death, so the virus can replicate from person to person.

Virus jumps to another species host:
The evolutionary pathway doesn’t yet exist. The virus could potentially kill the host, as it hasn’t evolved to a more favorable symbiotic relationship.




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Yes, I see. I agree, lethality in a new species makes sense, but only because there hasn't yet been enough time for selection pressure to act. Over time, evolutionary strategy will do its work (NOT go out the window).

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[pronstar]

Yes, I see. I agree, lethality in a new species makes sense, but only because there hasn't yet been enough time for selection pressure to act. Over time, evolutionary strategy will do its work (NOT go out the window).

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My comment was aimed toward the evolutionary pathway for the original host, which is absolutely “out the window” when it jumps to a new species and the favorable pathway has not yet been established.

But there are also viruses that jump species that don’t affect the new species at all.


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[plinkr]

My comment was aimed toward the evolutionary pathway for the original host, which is absolutely “out the window” when it jumps to a new species and the favorable pathway has not yet been established.

But there are also viruses that jump species that don’t affect the new species at all.


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Yup

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[oldag]

It's based on the mathematics of viral spread. If 1 person infects 10, then those 10 infect 100, then those 100 infect 1,000, then those 1,000 infect 10,000, then those 10,000 infect 100,000 and so on. Exponential growth. This outbreak is teaching us a lot of things, including how deficient math education is in the US. Or maybe just on this forum.

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China only has 80,000 cases. Even if they are only reporting half, that is a LONG way from a million.

Stop panicking.

 

[Darkpriest667]

I thought bats were the reservoir host?

It is but what I meant is it's a disease friendly in the host species but not so friendly in us.

 

[toddnjoyce]

Not a joke, not fake news. Just snapped it on the WSJ app.

Trump: These people are dying; let’s give it the old college try.

FDA: Too risky, they may get sick.

 

[plinkr]

China only has 80,000 cases. Even if they are only reporting half, that is a LONG way from a million.

Stop panicking.

Hahahahaha! Didn't realize I was panicking

I try to avoid panic, because it's impossible to get the timing right. For almost all of the 13.5 billion year lifespan of this universe it has been either too soon or too late for panic to be a useful response.

But since you felt comfortable giving me advice, I shall return the favor. Either learn the science or listen to people who know it. Ignorant bliss is just as bad as panic.

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