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Grand Solar Minimum = get used to the kind of cold...

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  • angel71rs

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    we saw hit Texas couple weeks ago. Late 20s going to get dicey. Scroll down:

    Texas SOT
     

    Texas45

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    Thinking we (man) can control and or change the weather climate or wtf this rock decides to do is just stupid.

    This rock will whip around the orange glob as it has for billions of yrs already until such time that forces other than man and that man has 0 control over until the rock and the fire ball decide they done.


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    flgfish

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    I don't think we're at Grand Minimum levels yet. I watch the sun off an on and small sunspot activity has been picking up. We're on the building side of a new cycle.
    Ben can be obtuse at times, but here's an overview of recent history.


    He does a daily update on space weather (sun activity) that is quick & interesting.
     
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    Younggun

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    I thought we hit solar minimum a year ago. I had set up to start looking at sun spots and realized I picked a terrible time.


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    flgfish

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    Solar minimums and maximums have basically zero effect on our weather and climate.

    I don't think anything I've ever read agrees with this. The IPCC uses a solar irradiance output in their climate simulations. If the sun's energy output didn't matter, then it wouldn't be included in the math.
     

    flgfish

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    I thought we hit solar minimum a year ago. I had set up to start looking at sun spots and realized I picked a terrible time.

    Yes, that's what I've read too - 2019/2020 was the minimum of the last cycle, and we're on the building side of a new one now.
     

    Younggun

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    I don't think anything I've ever read agrees with this. The IPCC uses a solar irradiance output in their climate simulations. If the sun's energy output didn't matter, then it wouldn't be included in the math.




    In between flips, the total radiation from the Sun – known as total solar irradiance – waxes and wanes in a semi-regular cycle by up to 0.15%. The short term changes in solar irradiance are not strong enough to have a long term influence on Earth's climate. Sustained changes in solar radiance – that is changes that occur over decades or centuries – could potentially have an effect on Earth's climate system,


    Solar irradiance would have to be factored if they are considering things like cloud cover and reflectivity of ice sheets also. Which would probably have much much greater effects that a .15% change in what the sun is putting out.

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    flgfish

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    That page is there to make the argument that solar cycles don't cause the man-made climate change that they measure. That's fine, I understand the argument. And then goes on to say that the last Grand Solar Minimum corresponded with the Little Ice Age, and that they basically don't know if they're connected, but that evidence may or may not support that.

    I don't buy that solar output, in EM and particle output, doesn't effect our climate. In the extreme, if you turn the sun off, we freeze. There's clearly a scale here. Is their stance that the sun variations are so small that we can ignore them, basically? I can buy that variations are relatively small during the regular cycles, but it doesn't follow that it's always that way.

    Smells like a physics problem where you assume every body is a sphere to make the math tractable.
     

    Younggun

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    That page is there to make the argument that solar cycles don't cause the man-made climate change that they measure. That's fine, I understand the argument. And then goes on to say that the last Grand Solar Minimum corresponded with the Little Ice Age, and that they basically don't know if they're connected, but that evidence may or may not support that.

    I don't buy that solar output, in EM and particle output, doesn't effect our climate. In the extreme, if you turn the sun off, we freeze. There's clearly a scale here. Is their stance that the sun variations are so small that we can ignore them, basically? I can buy that variations are relatively small during the regular cycles, but it doesn't follow that it's always that way.

    Smells like a physics problem where you assume every body is a sphere to make the math tractable.

    Well, they say it swings by “up to .15%” which isn’t much of a swing. Let’s say it has a major swing and goes all the way to .2%. I’d need to see compelling evidence to believe that will have much effect on our climate.


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    flgfish

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    Maunder Minimun was calculated to be 0.22%, so ~1.5x a normal solar cycle, and lasted much longer.

    The length of the decrease as well as the magnitude would both matter in terms of long term trends.
     
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    Younggun

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    Maunder Minimun was calculated to be 0.22%, so ~1.5x a normal solar cycle, and lasted much longer.

    The length of the decrease as well as the magnitude would both matter in terms of long term trends.

    I’m not very concerned with .22% either.


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    no2gates

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    I stopped reading at this point:
    "We are currently in an interglacial, which began approximately 11,500 years ago and it is estimated that it will end some time within the next 50,000 years."
    Oh crap! I hope it's not going to affect my summer party plans :)
     
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