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  • benenglish

    Just Another Boomer
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    the Russian threat to Europe is greater now than it ever was under the Soviet Union.
    That wasn't true from after the German reunification through to Putin's latest ascent. NATO should have changed during that time but it didn't.

    I can't help but wonder if the US had had a capable leader with an interest in foreign affairs if things wouldn't be very different now. If the US had stepped back from (not walked away or abandoned, just stepped back from) NATO after the Berlin Wall fell, could the EU have stepped up and established defenses suited to the new potential Russian threats? If they did, would Russia be the threat it is now?

    I think the answers are yes and no, respectively. Which means, long term, that the effect of the US babysitting NATO for so long has been to allow the Russian threat to grow without tailored, effective responses being put in place.

    I really believe if we had done the right thing back then, we would be in better shape today.

    But responsible historians don't play "what if", so perhaps I should just take my little fantasy and lock it away somewhere.
    Hurley's Gold
     

    SQLGeek

    Muh state lines
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    For the most part they love Americans and our culture, but dislike our government.

    I've definitely found this to be true, especially in the Norman area. They have an appreciation for the US that we as a whole don't have for ourselves. I've noticed this with the Dutch, too.
     

    TheDan

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    So what the heck would anyone switch to?
    According to the BIS, gold. ...or a gold "based" digital currency.

    The fact is everyone's economy looks like shit right now and everyone's bonds, which are supposed to be the most valuable asset, are returning effective negative rates. Perhaps US t-bills are slightly less negative than others, but don't expect that to hold.

    There’s a push toward a global central bank to issue global digital currency, which leads to global taxation.
    Yep, as hinted in the article that is the IMF's goal. I believe they are still pushing for a "basket of currencies", but they could easily create their own digital currency based on whatever basket they come up with.

    They're building the tallest house of financial cards ever constructed and when it falls there will be hell to pay.
    When it collapses China will just blame capitalism and re-nationalize everything. Then they'll reveal that they actually have 3-4 times the amount of gold reserves they've been reporting, release a digital currency "backed" by their gold reserves, and possibly even allow an audit or two to make themselves look good.

    I would not bet on this currency to be actually redeemable for gold, and not at all to non-Chinese, and don't expect the backing to last more than 5-7 years, but that would be enough to severely disrupt the global banking system.
     

    benenglish

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    When it collapses China will just blame capitalism and re-nationalize everything. Then they'll reveal that they actually have 3-4 times the amount of gold reserves they've been reporting, release a digital currency "backed" by their gold reserves, and possibly even allow an audit or two to make themselves look good.

    I would not bet on this currency to be actually redeemable for gold, and not at all to non-Chinese, and don't expect the backing to last more than 5-7 years, but that would be enough to severely disrupt the global banking system.
    That is devious AF and theoretically possible.

    But a global reserve currency to replace the USD has to be trusted. If they actually tried to do as you posit, would anyone, anywhere, (even their own people) actually trust them to the extent required to replace the USD? The only way that could happen is if the US screws up and screws over so much and so many that the rest of the world loses trust that the United States still functions.

    That's not likely. Unfortunately, after seeing the events of the last couple of years, for the first time in my life I have to admit that it could happen.

    Wow. That's a sobering thought. :(
     

    TheDan

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    But a global reserve currency to replace the USD has to be trusted. If they actually tried to do as you posit, would anyone, anywhere, (even their own people) actually trust them to the extent required to replace the USD? The only way that could happen is if the US screws up and screws over so much and so many that the rest of the world loses trust that the United States still functions.
    Yeah I wouldn't trust China, and I don't trust central bank digital currencies at all, but from what we are hearing out of the EU they would.

    Global faith in USD has been lost before. You were an adult in 71, right? Nixon had to take us off a gold standard because foreign banks were turning in USD for gold at a rate that would have collapsed US reserves. The USD only regained faith by bulling countries into using it through military agreements with oil producing countries, but that strategy is falling apart now.

    But to your point there's still a lot the Fed could do to remain the shiniest turd in the bowl. Some pretty crazy stuff could happen, too. Like with the stroke of a pen canceling all student debt to send a deflationary wave out to slow down inflation.
     

    majormadmax

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    I really believe if we had done the right thing back then, we would be in better shape today...

    Responsible historians may not play the "what if" game, but I do!

    The right thing would have been letting Patton go through with his plan to go to Moscow (the Brits called it "Operation Unthinkable").

    I wonder what the world today would be like had that happened?

    On May 7, 1945, he had pleaded with visiting Undersecretary of War Robert Patterson: “Let’s keep our boots polished, bayonets sharpened and present a picture of force and strength to these people [the Russians]. This is the only language they understand and respect. If you fail to do this, then I would like to say to you that we have had a victory over the Germans and have disarmed them, but have lost the war.”

    When Patterson told him that he did not understand the “big picture,” but asked Patton what he would do about the Russians, he allegedly replied that he would keep the U.S. Army in Europe intact, delineate the border with the Soviets, and if they did not withdraw behind it, “push them back across it.” He went on: “We did not come over here to acquire jurisdiction over either the people or their countries. We came to give them back the right to govern themselves. We must either finish the job now—while we are here and ready—or later in less favorable circumstances.” Needless to say, such ideas were totally unacceptable to the politicians in Washington—and indeed to most of the American soldiers in Europe; all they wanted to do was to go home.

     
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