The Coming U.S. Power Grid Failure

[Brains]

I will never have home automation.

what will you do 10 years from now when all of the programming is not supported and incompatible with new technology?

You know what works? The basic light switches, 120V. It’s been around since the 1900s for a reason. I can trouble shoot and install anything new with that. And guarantee it’s going to work for 20 years. And replacement switches are 1.50$ at Home Depot. New lights are 50-100$ and easy to replace.

In 10 years I will do what I want, just like I did this time - build it!

Everyone assumes that you have to choose what's offered with home automation. Amazon Alexa, Google Home, Apple HomeKit, Tuya, etc. Nope. Not necessary. There's some great open source projects out there offering a scaffolding to build on, and giving the ability to dig in as far as you'd like. You can trust it as much as you trust your skills being able to set it up. But, that's the problem for the masses - it's a specialized set of skills most people don't have.

The only people who fear or can't trust automating things are those who don't understand it. Back in the early 1900's some farmers didn't trust tractors, because they knew how to care for their oxen and horses, which rarely failed them. People didn't originally trust electricity either, thinking it would kill everyone. People didn't trust computers. And, some people don't trust home automation for the same reason.

Truthfully, we're still in the transition phase with automating the home. A lot of the automations are downright silly, and offer negative convenience. Then there's the security aspect, which for commercial offerings is functionally nonexistent.

As a software engineer who works in automation, my advice to all of you is; DO NOT USE HOME AUTOMATION!

And I wouldnt use any smart speakers either. Machine learning is creepy as hell

DO NOT USE *PACKAGED* HOME AUTOMATION

Most of my setup stays within my walls. It's "connected" to the Internet, but requires me to VPN to my home network to access. It's completely cut off from the outside world. The few convenience items I have (wife likes the Ring doorbell) that are allowed to phone home are isolated on their own VLAN.

 

[MTA]

In 10 years I will do what I want, just like I did this time - build it!

Everyone assumes that you have to choose what's offered with home automation. Amazon Alexa, Google Home, Apple HomeKit, Tuya, etc. Nope. Not necessary. There's some great open source projects out there offering a scaffolding to build on, and giving the ability to dig in as far as you'd like. You can trust it as much as you trust your skills being able to set it up. But, that's the problem for the masses - it's a specialized set of skills most people don't have.

The only people who fear or can't trust automating things are those who don't understand it. Back in the early 1900's some farmers didn't trust tractors, because they knew how to care for their oxen and horses, which rarely failed them. People didn't originally trust electricity either, thinking it would kill everyone. People didn't trust computers. And, some people don't trust home automation for the same reason.

Truthfully, we're still in the transition phase with automating the home. A lot of the automations are downright silly, and offer negative convenience. Then there's the security aspect, which for commercial offerings is functionally nonexistent.



DO NOT USE *PACKAGED* HOME AUTOMATION

Most of my setup stays within my walls. It's "connected" to the Internet, but requires me to VPN to my home network to access. It's completely cut off from the outside world. The few convenience items I have (wife likes the Ring doorbell) that are allowed to phone home are isolated on their own VLAN.

Most people wont or cant make their own. My warning is for the layman

 

[FireInTheWire]

People didn't originally trust electricity either, thinking it would kill everyone.

To be fair... it killed 1 outta 2 linemen in the beginning. That's how the lineman union became about. In the grid beginning... the union was formed to help pay for the funeral costs for all the widows of the linemen.

 

[Mowingmaniac 24/7]

We're looking at a Generac propane powered generator that'll power everything in the house including AC.

Cheap too and only have to wait 6 months if we give the go ahead.

Estimate over the phone $24 to $30,000 for turn key job.

Rep to come out in a week for actual cost...

 

[Younggun]

In 10 years I will do what I want, just like I did this time - build it!

Everyone assumes that you have to choose what's offered with home automation. Amazon Alexa, Google Home, Apple HomeKit, Tuya, etc. Nope. Not necessary. There's some great open source projects out there offering a scaffolding to build on, and giving the ability to dig in as far as you'd like. You can trust it as much as you trust your skills being able to set it up. But, that's the problem for the masses - it's a specialized set of skills most people don't have.

The only people who fear or can't trust automating things are those who don't understand it. Back in the early 1900's some farmers didn't trust tractors, because they knew how to care for their oxen and horses, which rarely failed them. People didn't originally trust electricity either, thinking it would kill everyone. People didn't trust computers. And, some people don't trust home automation for the same reason.

Truthfully, we're still in the transition phase with automating the home. A lot of the automations are downright silly, and offer negative convenience. Then there's the security aspect, which for commercial offerings is functionally nonexistent.



DO NOT USE *PACKAGED* HOME AUTOMATION

Most of my setup stays within my walls. It's "connected" to the Internet, but requires me to VPN to my home network to access. It's completely cut off from the outside world. The few convenience items I have (wife likes the Ring doorbell) that are allowed to phone home are isolated on their own VLAN.

Those damn turn of the century tractors. Feeding your conversation to server in god knows where and building profiles based on the farmers activities!


Perfect analogy.


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[oldag]

We're looking at a Generac propane powered generator that'll power everything in the house including AC.

Cheap too and only have to wait 6 months if we give the go ahead.

Estimate over the phone $24 to $30,000 for turn key job.

Rep to come out in a week for actual cost...

Have been considering one. Will be interested to hear how the firm price comes out.

 

[Mowingmaniac 24/7]

oldag,

I'll letcha know when I do!

 

[Axxe55]

We're looking at a Generac propane powered generator that'll power everything in the house including AC.

Cheap too and only have to wait 6 months if we give the go ahead.

Estimate over the phone $24 to $30,000 for turn key job.

Rep to come out in a week for actual cost...

Years ago, when I was working in the equipment rental business as a mechanic and shop manager, the business was a Generac Authorized dealer, and we contracted out to do outside repairs on Generac back-up home generators.

If Generac is anything like they use to be, they are IMO a top-tier generator, that very seldom ever needs repairs. Most of my home service calls on Generac's were mostly just maintenance service calls. In four years, only one was an actual repair call, The Generator portion failed, and had to be removed and sent to Generac.

ETA: spelling!

 

[Texas45]

Most people wont or cant make their own. My warning is for the layman

I know nada about it.
I also know I want nada to do with it.
I know how to work the lights ac etc and have for years.
Prefer to keep it as such.
At least til Im unable to get my ass out of the chair then maybe itd be nice to have. Or a servant to do it.
Line servant better I hate automation.
Like faucets that dont come on when you put hands under um or scanners that dont scan/read without 28 swipes.
Bullshit always craps out.


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[Brains]

Automations done well are so seamless you don’t really realize it’s automated at all. In my house things are linked, for lack of a better word. Walk into certain rooms and the lights turn on. Leave and they turn back off. Double tap the light switch up when you enter the media room and all the equipment sets itself up and is ready to watch, and lights set themselves to a comfortable level. Pick the show and the lights automatically dim. Show is over, lights come up slightly. Double tap the light switch on exit and all the lights go off, and all the equipment shuts down.

If the things rely on voice commands, in my opinion they’re not automated at all.

 

[Davetex]

I have gotten a couple of quotes for a whole house generator in the last month. Both quotes were outrageous. The last one was 13,600 dollars for a 20kw Kohler with transfer switch, 6 month lead time, and half the money up front. Screw that.

So I've decided to go this route.....

 

[Davetex]

Already ordered the Duromax from Tractor Supply and have a good electrician scheduled that has done this a few times. All said and done, I'll have around $3000 in it.
Also will install a soft start device on the A/C that will drop the initial starting amps from about 75 to 30.

 

[ZX9RCAM]

Will it run on gasoline, or natural gas?

 

[Davetex]

Will it run on gasoline, or natural gas?

Gas and propane.

 

[cygunner]

Looks like GM has stepped back and taken dead aim at their feet - AGAIN. Where do these ass clowns think the electricity is going to come from, China? At the rate we are going we sure as hell is cold won't be producing it.


General Motors plans to exclusively offer electric vehicles by 2035
CNBC › 2021/01/28 › general-motors-plans-to-exclusively-offer-...


Jan 28, 2021 ... General Motors plans to exclusively offer electric vehicles by 2035 ... create a future that will benefit not only the planet, but the people,” he said.

 

[pronstar]

It’s a “plan” and they cal it “an aspirational targets elsewhere.

Just more corporate virtue-signaling.


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[cygunner]

It’s a “plan” and they cal it “an aspirational targets elsewhere.

Just more corporate virtue-signaling.


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True this, it's easy to see where their heads are and just looking for more handouts. However, even if electric numbers increased just incrementally not only the grid but the power supply itself will be inadequate if the powers stick to the green myth.

 

[Spcwolf]

In 10 years I will do what I want, just like I did this time - build it!

Everyone assumes that you have to choose what's offered with home automation. Amazon Alexa, Google Home, Apple HomeKit, Tuya, etc. Nope. Not necessary. There's some great open source projects out there offering a scaffolding to build on, and giving the ability to dig in as far as you'd like. You can trust it as much as you trust your skills being able to set it up. But, that's the problem for the masses - it's a specialized set of skills most people don't have.

The only people who fear or can't trust automating things are those who don't understand it. Back in the early 1900's some farmers didn't trust tractors, because they knew how to care for their oxen and horses, which rarely failed them. People didn't originally trust electricity either, thinking it would kill everyone. People didn't trust computers. And, some people don't trust home automation for the same reason.

Truthfully, we're still in the transition phase with automating the home. A lot of the automations are downright silly, and offer negative convenience. Then there's the security aspect, which for commercial offerings is functionally nonexistent.



DO NOT USE *PACKAGED* HOME AUTOMATION

Most of my setup stays within my walls. It's "connected" to the Internet, but requires me to VPN to my home network to access. It's completely cut off from the outside world. The few convenience items I have (wife likes the Ring doorbell) that are allowed to phone home are isolated on their own VLAN.

It’s your money, do what you want with it. If you want to make your house one giant computer then go ahead. I just see no value in it. The more complicated things are, the more possibility for problems. My point is this, electrical wiring for residential when installed correctly will work for years without issue. And if their is an issue it can be fixed without much fuss. I do it all the time.

 

[Axxe55]

This "dream" (for lack of better words.) for our entire country to be using electric vehicles by the year 2035 is not based upon any reality or logic that I'm aware of.

The technology just isn't there yet in the batteries. The batteries are the weakest part of the technology at this point. For a case in point example, look at cordless power tools for a sort of stepping stone in battery technology and where it's headed. Yes, it has made vast steps in where it was ten years ago, but it still has a long ways to go in powering a vehicle everyday.

Another fact is, batteries have to be recharged to be useful. Recharging batteries requires a power source of some sort to recharge. Ultimately, that in most and possibly the majority of times is going to be the power grid.The larger the number of electrical vehicles being charged, and a bigger increase in those numbers is going to lead to higher demands of electricity needed for the power grid. This creates bugger problems of electrical demand and usage on the entire system. That in itself poses it's own problems. The power grid's infrastructure isn't capable IMO to realize these increased demand on it from increased and higher usage because of it's age. The entire infrastructure needs to be updated and make more capable of the higher demands. And last February, when the snow and ice storm hit Texas, was just a glimmer of things to come. Imagine that same scenario in every state in this country.

In short, this country isn't and won't be ready to make the transition to fully electrical vehicles by 2035, or anytime soon there after. If they wanted this to happen by 2035, they should have started making changed for it to happen at least fifty if not sixty years ago. The science and technology just has not gotten there yet.

 

[oldag]

This "dream" (for lack of better words.) for our entire country to be using electric vehicles by the year 2035 is not based upon any reality or logic that I'm aware of.

The technology just isn't there yet in the batteries. The batteries are the weakest part of the technology at this point. For a case in point example, look at cordless power tools for a sort of stepping stone in battery technology and where it's headed. Yes, it has made vast steps in where it was ten years ago, but it still has a long ways to go in powering a vehicle everyday.

Another fact is, batteries have to be recharged to be useful. Recharging batteries requires a power source of some sort to recharge. Ultimately, that in most and possibly the majority of times is going to be the power grid.The larger the number of electrical vehicles being charged, and a bigger increase in those numbers is going to lead to higher demands of electricity needed for the power grid. This creates bugger problems of electrical demand and usage on the entire system. That in itself poses it's own problems. The power grid's infrastructure isn't capable IMO to realize these increased demand on it from increased and higher usage because of it's age. The entire infrastructure needs to be updated and make more capable of the higher demands. And last February, when the snow and ice storm hit Texas, was just a glimmer of things to come. Imagine that same scenario in every state in this country.

In short, this country isn't and won't be ready to make the transition to fully electrical vehicles by 2035, or anytime soon there after. If they wanted this to happen by 2035, they should have started making changed for it to happen at least fifty if not sixty years ago. The science and technology just has not gotten there yet.

Agree with the above. And to add:

A recent WSJ article pointed out that 2035 is impossible. Not enough mines exist to supply the needed raw materials. And from the day a deal is closed to start a new mine until ore starts being produced is an average of 12-15 years.