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The State of the HPA

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  • SC-Texas

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    The truth about the HPA and 41F? Can we, as Gun Culture 3.0, handle the truth? Its not as done a deal as we were led to believe! Kel said it. Now I'm saying it

    What is the truth? The truth is that it is unlikeky that the HPA will reach the President's desk anytime soon.

    Gemtech's CEO, Ron Martinez, a member of the ASA board, has been saying that HPA isn't a done deal for several months.

    Now that Silencerco has laid off a large percentage of its workforce, it looks like Mr. Waldron is finally admitting that the HPA isnt as done a deal as they led us to believe. Maybe they should have fought to defund 41F before it was implemented on July 13, 2016 instead of telling everyone the Hearing Protection Act was a done deal.

    The reports I have received from across the industry, both on the manufacturer and retail level since July 13th is that suppressor sales are way down. It's my understanding that SHOT show, while heavily attended, did not result in the usual number of orders.

    Kel Whelan commented that "41F is the true killer of sales from the existing customer base. "Waiting for HPA" is a lot of noise from potential new customers that weren't going to buy anyway, but might if things got cheaper. The one-two punch of both of these factors make it look like the sky is falling, but you have to discount a lot of the newbie HPA wishers. They weren't going to factor into normal sales velocity regardless."

    The increased demand for silencers in the months preceeding the implementation of 41F coupled with the irrational exuberence of the imminent passage of the HPA likely spurred some manufacturers to take on additional debt to expand their production capacity. The apparent bet was that the HPA would pass in the first 100 days, which would have lead to a second surge in demand as new buyers entered the newly deregulated market. When this didn't happen, all that debt still had to be repaid. Repaying the additional debt may be hard with sales slow as they are.

    All of us want the Hearing Protection Act to reach the President's desk and be signed into law. However, those who are waiting to purchase a suppressor are going to be waiting a long time.

    If you have friends who are waiting purchase their first suppressor, tell them they need to start the purchase process. This waiting for the HPA coupled with the additional impediments imposed on the purchaser by 41F is killing the industry.

    We, the owners, retailers and manufacturers should have fought to defund 41 before July 13 and then we could have worked on the HPA without the pressure that the industry faces. Its not to late to kill 41F. Congress can defund it. We can work on HPA concurrently.

    www.TexasGunTrust.com

    http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/20...dron-hearing-protection-acts-not-a-done-deal/

    http://www.ar15news.com/2017/02/13/...-ron-martinez-ceo-gemtech-offers-perspective/


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    Younggun

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    Sadly, although I never saw the HPA as a done deal, it reads like a sales pitch with a little scare tactic thrown in.


    It would be nice if HPA passed, but what stops people is knowing that the ATF has a ridiculous backlog.

    Manufacturers and dealers weren't crying in the rush leading up to 41P. But now the industry is being killed? Sounds like the industry should have saved some of that cash.

    No different than what the rest of the firearms industry is dealing with.


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    SC-Texas

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    It's not much of a sales pitch. It's the reality of the situation. All of the existing customers and a bunch of new ones jumped in immediately prior to 41f. Since 41f, sales have dropped to near zero 4 most FFLs and manufacturers.

    That is the simple reality.

    It is going to be interesting to see how many manufacturers make it through this period.



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    SC-Texas

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    I've been told by some manufacturers that the speculation on the passage of HPA has decimated their sales.

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    Younggun

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    I didn't intend to question the situation they are in l, just what sounded like a plea to start buying.

    SS posted pictures of cases of form 4s stacked waiting for FedEx. I can only imagine how much their profits were up during that time. Seems this should have been a foreseeable situation.

    Individual companies may not survive, but I believe the industry will.

    I'm not bashing any particular business here, including SS. Just remember the pictures. It's all just "matter of fact" to me, same as what's going on in the MSR industry.

    I've got more cans to buy, but it won't happen until wait times are reduced regardless of what the industry is dealing with right now.

    I believe the article is correct (as I read it) that many or most waiting for HPA would not have been considering a purchase otherwise.


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    V-Tach

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    I sent in personal Form 4's in November while everyone else was saying wait for HPA........Looks like it was a good decision.

    Yes, suppressor sales have all but dried up.......so many bought before 41F, that they are not in any hurry to buy more suppressors while they are still waiting for the one's they already purchased.

    Suppressor prices have not dropped significantly to entice new buyers......and will most certainly have to in light of the HPA not being passed anytime soon.......

    A lot of shake up in the suppressor market is coming.......
     

    Younggun

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    I've been told by some manufacturers that the speculation on the passage of HPA has decimated their sales.

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    I guess with it coming on the heels of 41f it could be attributed to either or/and both. I lean towards the bubble concept with HPA being a much smaller factor.

    MHO. Appreciate the insights.


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    SC-Texas

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    Young gun. Lol. I didn't mean it to sound like a play to start buying.

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    Younggun

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    Young gun. Lol. I didn't mean it to sound like a play to start buying.

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    No problem. Things are easily taken incorrectly in text.

    Apologize if I've been arguing a point you weren't trying to make.


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    Younggun

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    Either way, nice to get through a few posts of discussion without insults.


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    SC-Texas

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    No problem. Things are easily taken incorrectly in text.

    Apologize if I've been arguing a point you weren't trying to make.


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    Not a problem. No offense taken.

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    Dawico

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    I've been told by some manufacturers that the speculation on the passage of HPA has decimated their sales.

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    This is true for me as a consumer.

    While I was on the fence before, I am waiting now. I am aware that I will have another suppressor sooner if I apply now, but I am okay waiting to see what happens.
     

    mroper

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    Well with the wait for a stamp being around 10 months. I would bet some folks are saying well I might as well wait 8 months for the backlog to go down and see if HPA passes
     

    SC-Texas

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    I am expecting the way to drop from eight or nine months to 4 months to 6 months after March

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    XinTX

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    It's not much of a sales pitch. It's the reality of the situation. All of the existing customers and a bunch of new ones jumped in immediately prior to 41f. Since 41f, sales have dropped to near zero 4 most FFLs and manufacturers.

    Well, a can was on my 'bucket list' once I had bought a few other items I wanted. I had some trust paperwork ready and had finally saved up the funds. But that happened right as 41P became 41F. So I spent the money elsewhere. 41F crossed a few NFA items off my bucket list.
     

    peeps

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    The strong will survive. With a big shake up comes shedding of fat and bad products. What's left in the end will hopefully be better quality. Better products and healthier companies.
     

    Brains

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    Looks to me like the manufacturers made a set of very poor speculative moves. The high wire fell from beneath them and they're looking for the net. Some companies will die, some will restructure or shift focus into lateral markets, and some might even have been smart and planned for something other than a sure thing. That's business, let the chips fall where they may. Nobody will forget how to make cans any time soon, and if/when 41P is dead and/or HPA passes, it won't take long to ramp back up. Certainly not longer than the ATF takes to approve stamps.
     
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