What-If: ISIS-like encroachment in Southern US?

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  • Mreed911

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    I'm putting this in politics just because I don't know where else it should go. Let's play a game...

    You're ISIS. You have grand dreams of invading America. Given a choice of west coast, east coast, via Canada or via Mexico, you easily conclude that via Mexico is the way to go.

    Do you target Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, or California as the place to push in, full-on armed-assault style? Consider that you want access to areas you can secure (good urban infrastructure) and with good transportation corridors.

    You choose to partner with the Mexican drug cartels and coyotes, and offer Mexican and OTM immigrants free access to the areas captured if they'll help you capture them, forming a hybrid ISIS/illegal immigrant army bolstered by cartel weaponry.

    I'll start - I think if you look, southern California and southern Texas are the two best targets. California is preferable only because you're less likely to encounter armed resistance than you will be in Texas. California looks attractive at San Diego and then into LA. Texas, however, looks attractive at McAllen, El Paso and Del Rio. Obviously a first strike has to be overwhelmingly heavy to secure and overtake both US and Mexican government forces and control a border checkpoint - no easy first task.

    Given the administration's lack of spine with regards to military usage and the limitation on broad strikes since these would be heavily populated areas with a mix of insurgents and civillians, any resistance would be ground-based urban warfare, augmented by ISIS's willingness to use terrorism to expand their sphere of control.

    How far do they make it? McAllen? Corpus? San Antonio? Houston?

    I'm not worried about this, per se, just running through in my head "how long" I think we'd have at different points inside the US once suicide bombers started coming over the border and local conflicts started. I'm not looking for the ooh-rah responses of "we'd all tac up and kick their ass!" or "go 'merica!", instead looking for "how long do you think it would take US forces to respond and be effective?"
     

    Vaquero

    Moving stuff to the gas prices thread.....
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    If El Paso got targeted, I'd expect Ft. Bliss to mobilize.
    If they got orders to hold positions on base, and followed them, "it's time."
     

    Mreed911

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    If El Paso got targeted, I'd expect Ft. Bliss to mobilize.
    If they got orders to hold positions on base, and followed them, "it's time."

    Good point. And with the Marine installations in San Diego, that leaves McAllen and Del Rio as the two "softest" targets that also provide good inroads to spread out, and makes holding a line south of San Antonio/Corpus incredibly important.

    Between the two, my money would be McAllen. Laredo (a third choice) would be out because just blowing the bridge would shut off a lot of access, same with Del Rio. At least in McAllen you can still move along the beach, coast, etc.
     
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    zincwarrior

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    Of course thats a pretty long supply route protected by a couple of guys with AKs. Cartels wouldn't join because this would hurt business. Ok so in actuality they'd never make it out of northern Mexico before dozens of new mass graves were made for them.

    ISIS is just cover for a whole host of Sunni groups, fed up with the Iraqi government and looking to restart the same religious conflict that has been going on in the region for centuries.
     

    Mreed911

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    Of course thats a pretty long supply route protected by a couple of guys with AKs.

    Make it to a large city and supply routes become less necessary. AK's and RPG's and IED's and suicide bombers.

    Cartels wouldn't join because this would hurt business. Ok so in actuality they'd never make it out of northern Mexico before dozens of new mass graves were made for them.

    This may well be correct. I don't think the cartels are stupid enough to think that any inroads they made would be kept, especially by a religious organization that would attempt to cut them off at the knees the second they outlawed drug use (even though Afghanistan produces most of the poppies used for heroin and is supposedly an "islamic" country).

    ISIS is just cover for a whole host of Sunni groups, fed up with the Iraqi government and looking to restart the same religious conflict that has been going on in the region for centuries.

    Agreed. I've just been reading a LOT about border security the past few days and short of full militarization of the border don't see how we're going to accomplish much... and I'm not anywhere near in favor of a fully militarized border.
     

    Mreed911

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    Grabbing a few more would be more likely.

    Sure... but where is the line? Are we (fed/state/local/citizenry) fast enough to draw that line at McAllen? Alice? Texas is vast, so I'm not envisioning a multi-thousand strong walking army coming north. I'm thinking sporadic terrorism, disruption, and blending in... almost like the pseudo-militarized Jerusalem today.
     
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