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What-If: ISIS-like encroachment in Southern US?

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  • Mreed911

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    I'm putting this in politics just because I don't know where else it should go. Let's play a game...

    You're ISIS. You have grand dreams of invading America. Given a choice of west coast, east coast, via Canada or via Mexico, you easily conclude that via Mexico is the way to go.

    Do you target Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, or California as the place to push in, full-on armed-assault style? Consider that you want access to areas you can secure (good urban infrastructure) and with good transportation corridors.

    You choose to partner with the Mexican drug cartels and coyotes, and offer Mexican and OTM immigrants free access to the areas captured if they'll help you capture them, forming a hybrid ISIS/illegal immigrant army bolstered by cartel weaponry.

    I'll start - I think if you look, southern California and southern Texas are the two best targets. California is preferable only because you're less likely to encounter armed resistance than you will be in Texas. California looks attractive at San Diego and then into LA. Texas, however, looks attractive at McAllen, El Paso and Del Rio. Obviously a first strike has to be overwhelmingly heavy to secure and overtake both US and Mexican government forces and control a border checkpoint - no easy first task.

    Given the administration's lack of spine with regards to military usage and the limitation on broad strikes since these would be heavily populated areas with a mix of insurgents and civillians, any resistance would be ground-based urban warfare, augmented by ISIS's willingness to use terrorism to expand their sphere of control.

    How far do they make it? McAllen? Corpus? San Antonio? Houston?

    I'm not worried about this, per se, just running through in my head "how long" I think we'd have at different points inside the US once suicide bombers started coming over the border and local conflicts started. I'm not looking for the ooh-rah responses of "we'd all tac up and kick their ass!" or "go 'merica!", instead looking for "how long do you think it would take US forces to respond and be effective?"
     

    Vaquero

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    If El Paso got targeted, I'd expect Ft. Bliss to mobilize.
    If they got orders to hold positions on base, and followed them, "it's time."
     

    Mreed911

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    If El Paso got targeted, I'd expect Ft. Bliss to mobilize.
    If they got orders to hold positions on base, and followed them, "it's time."

    Good point. And with the Marine installations in San Diego, that leaves McAllen and Del Rio as the two "softest" targets that also provide good inroads to spread out, and makes holding a line south of San Antonio/Corpus incredibly important.

    Between the two, my money would be McAllen. Laredo (a third choice) would be out because just blowing the bridge would shut off a lot of access, same with Del Rio. At least in McAllen you can still move along the beach, coast, etc.
     
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    zincwarrior

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    Of course thats a pretty long supply route protected by a couple of guys with AKs. Cartels wouldn't join because this would hurt business. Ok so in actuality they'd never make it out of northern Mexico before dozens of new mass graves were made for them.

    ISIS is just cover for a whole host of Sunni groups, fed up with the Iraqi government and looking to restart the same religious conflict that has been going on in the region for centuries.
     

    Mreed911

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    Of course thats a pretty long supply route protected by a couple of guys with AKs.

    Make it to a large city and supply routes become less necessary. AK's and RPG's and IED's and suicide bombers.

    Cartels wouldn't join because this would hurt business. Ok so in actuality they'd never make it out of northern Mexico before dozens of new mass graves were made for them.

    This may well be correct. I don't think the cartels are stupid enough to think that any inroads they made would be kept, especially by a religious organization that would attempt to cut them off at the knees the second they outlawed drug use (even though Afghanistan produces most of the poppies used for heroin and is supposedly an "islamic" country).

    ISIS is just cover for a whole host of Sunni groups, fed up with the Iraqi government and looking to restart the same religious conflict that has been going on in the region for centuries.

    Agreed. I've just been reading a LOT about border security the past few days and short of full militarization of the border don't see how we're going to accomplish much... and I'm not anywhere near in favor of a fully militarized border.
     

    Mreed911

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    Grabbing a few more would be more likely.

    Sure... but where is the line? Are we (fed/state/local/citizenry) fast enough to draw that line at McAllen? Alice? Texas is vast, so I'm not envisioning a multi-thousand strong walking army coming north. I'm thinking sporadic terrorism, disruption, and blending in... almost like the pseudo-militarized Jerusalem today.
     

    Southpaw

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    Could only pray the response would be quick.

    Sad to say but, I wouldn't want to be a Muslim or anything similar looking anywhere North of the those initially invaded cities. I think once you started seeing beheading and street executions broadcasting from McAllen and Laredo, there wouldn't be a Mosque standing in any part of Texas. I think you would also see any one that may simply look like or seem similar to the invaders either fleeing or being the victims of some sort of blind retribution.
     

    Vaquero

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    I don't believe the red army could get out of the RGV without meeting organized resistance.
    I really don't.
     

    Southpaw

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    Sure... but where is the line? Are we (fed/state/local/citizenry) fast enough to draw that line at McAllen? Alice? Texas is vast, so I'm not envisioning a multi-thousand strong walking army coming north. I'm thinking sporadic terrorism, disruption, and blending in... almost like the pseudo-militarized Jerusalem today.

    I think you would get the same response in my post above even if we start seeing only car bombings, etc. I don't feel there would be anywhere for them to blend in overall.
     

    TAZ

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    I think you're assumption is incorrect with regard to what an ISIS type organization would want here in the USA. They are not a governmental organization that thinks along the lines of conquest, occupation and eventual domination of a large area of land. Just cause they are making waves in Iraq, doesn't mean they want the same here. They have no logistical support and weven cave dwellers understand the importance of eating, sleeping and resting between fights.

    IMO they are already here. They have gotten here and will continue to do so along as many varied means as feasible. Some come across as drug runners and other typical illegals from the south. Other come in legally via H1B visas, student visas, or other aid type offers. These people aren't stupid. They out foxed the British and Russians for decades. Figuring out a way to get more numbers into the USA would not lose a serious problem for them.

    If they decide to act, they won't do the same thing they did in Iraq. It would be suicide for them to concentrate numbers into a limited number of areas where they can be identified and crushed. Even if the US government decided to ignore the problem the various state agencies and guard units would be effective against them in open warfare.

    Their goals would be to kill as many as possible and cripple our economy to the point of implosion. Can you imagine the effect of say 100 Dorners randomly attacking businesses in a number of states. A pile of DC snipers trolling large cities. IED's going off in business districts across the country. These are the types of attacks they would use. Forget the whole take a city and hold it. You don't eat an elephant in one bite, but in many little ones.
     

    Savage805

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    I don't believe the red army could get out of the RGV without meeting organized resistance.
    I really don't.
    Agreed 100% an invasion wouldn't stand a chance.

    I think you're assumption is incorrect with regard to what an ISIS type organization would want here in the USA. They are not a governmental organization that thinks along the lines of conquest, occupation and eventual domination of a large area of land. Just cause they are making waves in Iraq, doesn't mean they want the same here. They have no logistical support and weven cave dwellers understand the importance of eating, sleeping and resting between fights.

    IMO they are already here. They have gotten here and will continue to do so along as many varied means as feasible. Some come across as drug runners and other typical illegals from the south. Other come in legally via H1B visas, student visas, or other aid type offers. These people aren't stupid. They out foxed the British and Russians for decades. Figuring out a way to get more numbers into the USA would not lose a serious problem for them.

    If they decide to act, they won't do the same thing they did in Iraq. It would be suicide for them to concentrate numbers into a limited number of areas where they can be identified and crushed. Even if the US government decided to ignore the problem the various state agencies and guard units would be effective against them in open warfare.

    Their goals would be to kill as many as possible and cripple our economy to the point of implosion. Can you imagine the effect of say 100 Dorners randomly attacking businesses in a number of states. A pile of DC snipers trolling large cities. IED's going off in business districts across the country. These are the types of attacks they would use. Forget the whole take a city and hold it. You don't eat an elephant in one bite, but in many little ones.
    Gorilla warfare would be the way to go. It still wouldn't last long, one maybe two months and would cause more damage overall.
     

    V-Tach

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    We're being invaded on a daily basis already.....Their motives may be different, but an invasion nonetheless...

    jmho...
     

    oldguy

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    We're being invaded on a daily basis already.....Their motives may be different, but an invasion nonetheless...

    jmho...

    This administration would probably turn over Texas to the various Muslim groups and or fight on there side against the citizens, could be wrong but I'm not optimistic about our current leaders.
     

    AcidFlashGordon

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    Do you target Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, or California as the place to push in, full-on armed-assault style? Consider that you want access to areas you can secure (good Turban infrastructure) and with good transportation corridors.

    Sorry. HAD to do it.

    As for how far they'd get, In the Peoples' Socialist Яepublik of Kalifornia, they could probably take a large part of the state without too much resistance other than local LEOs. Most of the libiturd swine would try to appease the incoming a-holes.

    Arizona and New Mexico? Some probable resistance but due to lower populations, not a lot of organized resistance except maybe in the larger urban areas.

    Texas? That a whole other ball of wax. Maybe some of the libiturd areas in Texas would go down without too much problem (probably like Austin). But the rest of the state ... armed to the teeth and willing and able to use all that.
     

    SIG_Fiend

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    We already know that plenty of OTMs have already crossed the border and are here, including those of middle-eastern origin. What I'm the most concerned about, and I'm surprised it hasn't really happened much yet, is that they decide to start engaging in random acts such as some of the stuff that goes on overseas, and doing so on a regular basis.

    Here's a very NSFW video that's a good example. ISIS indiscriminately doing driveby's in Iraq. I could see stuff like this eventually happening here:

    LiveLeak.com - Horror in Iraqi Roads - Isis Death Squads Killing without mercy. Video not for all (18+)
     
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