Kavanaugh confirmation hearing

[ScorpionHunter]

In other words, if the bookies are giving better odds (7/2 or $7 to $2) that he won't be confirmed, they believe he will be confirmed.

Bookies don't necessarily think he might win or lose. They just want people to bet. But I think they do have to make sure they don't create an arbitrage where making both bets creates a no lose situation.

For example, if the odds were, say, 8 to 1 that Kavanaugh loses (a "no" bet), you could pay $6 for the "yes" bet and $1 for the "no" bet. If "yes" wins, your "yes" wins $1 and your "no" loses $1. That's a scratch. But if "no" wins, your "yes" loses $6 and your "no" wins $8. That would give you a chance to make $2 for no risk.

The real question is whether the collective action of all the betting is an accurate predictor. It wasn't in 2016. Let's hope it's better with Kavanaugh.

 

[vmax]

The Dems on Kavanaugh

 

[Lunyfringe]

Bookies don't necessarily think he might win or lose. They just want people to bet. But I think they do have to make sure they don't create an arbitrage where making both bets creates a no lose situation.

For example, if the odds were, say, 8 to 1 that Kavanaugh loses (a "no" bet), you could pay $6 for the "yes" bet and $1 for the "no" bet. If "yes" wins, your "yes" wins $1 and your "no" loses $1. That's a scratch. But if "no" wins, your "yes" loses $6 and your "no" wins $8. That would give you a chance to make $2 for no risk.

The real question is whether the collective action of all the betting is an accurate predictor. It wasn't in 2016. Let's hope it's better with Kavanaugh.

They adjust the odds based on how many bets they have taken each way, and pad it so they make money no matter which way it goes.

Those odds tell me that they are getting a lot of bets on him being confirmed, but a few the other way.

 

[ScorpionHunter]

They adjust the odds based on how many bets they have taken each way, and pad it so they make money no matter which way it goes.

Those odds tell me that they are getting a lot of bets on him being confirmed, but a few the other way.

I'd like to see how much money is actually bet on these types of events. I don't think any of the UK online bookies take American accounts, so I'm curious how much non-US interest there is in this sort of thing.

 

[sharkey]

I really fear the time is coming where we're going to have to water the tree.

Kavanaugh should be seated. If President Trump gets a third pick the left is going to go batshit. That could well be the trigger for a civil war.

The DNC is praying to a god they don't believe in Ruthie makes it 2 more years

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[easy rider]

Bookies don't necessarily think he might win or lose. They just want people to bet. But I think they do have to make sure they don't create an arbitrage where making both bets creates a no lose situation.

For example, if the odds were, say, 8 to 1 that Kavanaugh loses (a "no" bet), you could pay $6 for the "yes" bet and $1 for the "no" bet. If "yes" wins, your "yes" wins $1 and your "no" loses $1. That's a scratch. But if "no" wins, your "yes" loses $6 and your "no" wins $8. That would give you a chance to make $2 for no risk.

The real question is whether the collective action of all the betting is an accurate predictor. It wasn't in 2016. Let's hope it's better with Kavanaugh.

Show me a bookie that will give better odds on what they believe you would win. Odds are based on statistics, the better the chance of winning, the lower the odds.

 

[Sam7sf]

 

[oldag]

One R senator will be at his daughter's wedding on Saturday and not available to vote.

 

[Shady]

One R senator will be at his daughter's wedding on Saturday and not available to vote.

he has made it clear if needed he will be there. The original tweet saying he would not be there was from Liberals just pushing buttons.

 

[Lunyfringe]

One R senator will be at his daughter's wedding on Saturday and not available to vote.

Is his daughter a Democrat?

If so, then here we go again...

 

[diesel1959]

Flake is trash. Everything I have seen come out of that dudes voting record and mouth screams Dem.

He's trying to milk his last couple of months of being a Senator for all it's worth. The US Senate will be better off without him.

 

[diesel1959]

The Dems on Kavanaugh

View attachment 150176

The Dems got tired of pundits and folks telling them there's nothing they can do to stop this nomination . . . so they opted to go full rehtard. Yeah, that'll show 'em! [face palm]

 

[SloppyShooter]

Is his daughter a Democrat?

If so, then here we go again...

Nope, but she was groped by Kavanah.

 

[Kingarthur777]

Wonder if the riot....., I mean protesters, have gotten violent yet?

That is a LOT of money for protesters. I remember Craig List adds looking for people to protest for Obama care and paying them to do it.

 

[oldag]

he has made it clear if needed he will be there. The original tweet saying he would not be there was from Liberals just pushing buttons.

They are now saying they will hold the vote open until Sunday for him. He told Kavanaugh he would somehow get his Yes vote done.

 

[oldag]

Summary of FBI report further degrades the left's position.

 

[Army 1911]

How many days till somebody leaks the whole FBI report to the press?

 

[AustinN4]

How many days till somebody leaks the whole FBI report to the press?

Surprised it hasn't been already! Maybe because there is nothing bad in it?

 

[Brains]

How many days till somebody leaks the whole FBI report to the press?

Surprised it hasn't been already! Maybe because there is nothing bad in it?

They held it in a SCIF within the Capitol building. If it gets released, we have big problems with gov't infosec (and it would likely be an FBI leak).

 

[toddnjoyce]

They held it in a SCIF within the Capitol building. If it gets released, we have big problems with gov't infosec (and it would likely be an FBI leak).

Having witnessed cellphones inside DoD SCIFs before, I don’t trust a non-DoD SCIF to actually prevent the info from being released.

Also, just because it’s in a SCIF doesn’t mean the report is classified.