Prime 767 Down

[Vaquero]

Load shift?
Just a guess.

 

[karlac]

Load shift?
Just a guess.

Or wind shear and load shift.
Weather was apparently favorable for that.

 

[toddnjoyce]

Whatever happened was quite immediate as there wasn’t even a call to ATC to declare an emergency. There’s some speculation weather may have played a role as the crew asked for a deviation left for weather and were denied due to conflicting traffic.

Hopefully they’ll find the black boxes and those will tell the tale. Otherwise, not a lot will be known for a long time.

Even then, the story told May only be a very limited story.

 

[majormadmax]

Speculation. What do yall think brought it down?
Pilot suicide?
Wind shear?
Fire?

Please don't. It's bad form.

 

[single stack]

Yep. I’ve got a buddy flying for them. Waiting for him to check in.

My brother retired from Atlas Air last November.
He was a 747 driver. Probably knew those guys.
Bad stuff. Mesa Air guy in the jump seat.

 

[toddnjoyce]

Mesa Air guy in the jump seat.

Literally commuting to his last trip for Mesa. Had a United class date.

 

[majormadmax]

https://www.click2houston.com/news/these-are-the-victims-of-the-trinity-bay-plane-crash

 

[majormadmax]

To those who have reached out to help the family!

https://www.gofundme.com/sean-archuletas-family

 

[Dad_Roman]

Another interesting tidbit is there is apparently video from the Chambers County Jail security cameras that caught the last 5 Seconds of the flight

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That would be amazing to see. I hope the NTSB can see if there are anomalies or control surface deflections.

 

[toddnjoyce]

That would be amazing to see. I hope the NTSB can see if there are anomalies or control surface deflections.

If they can grab the FDR/CDVR, this data will be available.

ETA: video is reported to show -45* nose low or steeper attitude continuously for about 5 seconds of flight prior to impact. My understanding is the impact was not captured. Debris field is about 100yds x 200 yds, which is relatively compact, which supports the video evidence.

 

[Dad_Roman]

If they can grab the FDR/CDVR, this data will be available.

ETA: video is reported to show -45* nose low or steeper attitude continuously for about 5 seconds of flight prior to impact. My understanding is the impact was not captured. Debris field is about 100yds x 200 yds, which is relatively compact, which supports the video evidence.

Yep, yep and yep. Article sounded like they are still in "recovery"
mode. Sounded like they needed one more day then they can go find those.

 

[SC-Texas]

Please don't. It's bad form.

I disagree. It's a discussion forum we discuss. We speculate

Runaway trim?
Asymmetric slat or flap deployment?
Structural failure?

Crew issues seem to be highly unlikely. ARFCOM has some guys who know them.


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[SC-Texas]

Yep, yep and yep. Article sounded like they are still in "recovery"
mode. Sounded like they needed one more day then they can go find those.

I wonder how deep those boxes burrowed into the mud of Trinity Bay?

The FDR will tell the NTSB what the plane was doing when it crashes

The cockpit recorder will hopefully capture the sounds of what happened

I bet this ends up As a episode of "Air Disasters"



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[SC-Texas]

There was a mention of there not being much fuel in the water, at least that's what I read somewhere.

I wouldn't expect much fuel at the end of the flight

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[majormadmax]

I disagree. It's a discussion forum we discuss. We speculate.

There is time to debrief such incidents, but immediately after it occurs is not it. There will be an AIB that will determine what happened, no one on here has any vested interest in knowing what happened until such time as the facts are gathered and analysed by professionals.

As for ARFCOM, honestly? That forum has the biggest asshats around...

 

[toddnjoyce]

ARFCOM has some guys who know them.

That’s great. Jetcareers and APC are two industry specific forums that have much more informed speculation and a ton of membership who actually know all three of the crew.

Here’s what I’ll say it isn’t. It isn’t an in-flight break up, based on the video and debris field. It’s not mid-air collision as so one else has been reported missing.

If you follow this type of thing, go look at the 75/76 fleet fatal history. While informative, there’s not a smoking gun in there.

Honestly, speculation isn’t a bad thing if you know what you’re talking about. When you don’t, it’s just speaking out of your ass.

 

[SC-Texas]

As for ARFCOM, honestly? That forum has the biggest asshats around...

It does. The best asshat comment was the .50cal semi comment.

But it also has some guys who fly for Atlas, FedEx and UPS.

As far as the rest, it's a discussion forum and we are discussing. I believe most of the folks discussing the incident here are smart enough to know we are not investigators.

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[SC-Texas]

The reality is it takes a lot for a 767 to stop flying.

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[karlac]

I wonder how deep those boxes burrowed into the mud of Trinity Bay?

That entire area was my favorite duck hunting place back in the 50's in High School.
Always tried to take shots where a bird would fall in the water, and not what passes for land.
Even tough for a good dog.

It's brackish, tidal marshland and that mud goes all the way to China ...

 

[toddnjoyce]

The reality is it takes a lot for a 767 to stop flying.

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In this instance, it was the bay.

The aircraft doesn’t appear to have departed from controlled flight and it doesn’t appear to have been in an unrecoverable attitude.

What the *very* limited video clip that was available (and I don’t believe it is publicly available any longer) indicates is that it was in a stable profile, although nose low with *seemingly* no input to correct that condition.

Whatever (and their are only a very few) mechanical conditions that can produce that result may be indicated in the FDR and through NTSB metallurgy investigation.

As a pilot, the lack of early indicators is more concerning to me than the presence of.