Texas electrical grid issues

[majormadmax]

Well since I have lost track of all the other usernames that Gambler has used since being banned, and those being banned he used to fly in under the radar, IIRC it was one of his alter-ego usernames and not Gambler that started a thread on the same subject some months back.

And yes, one of his alter-egos used the same avatar. I'm at the point that I'm now 99% convinced that Mavs is Gambler under a new name. The sentence structure and word usage are eerily too similar to be just a coincidence now.

This thread, just like many that Gambler started, moaning and complaining, demanding change is very typical of the posting style I am referring to.

If the above is true, and I suspect it is, then...

 

[oldag]

Actually, I do. I listen to the news sometimes, and I heard about conserving electricity to help avoid the rolling blackouts.

Has it been officially decided that wind and solar are the reason for the power outages, and if so, why? Or is it simply that we have added more demand than our system can handle at this point?
Unless power plants are being shut down because of added wind and solar, how could they cause this problem? Seems like adding wind/solar into an existing grid could only help it... ? I confess I'm not well versed in the whole electric system structure.

Yes, wind and solar (to a lesser extent because solar generation is small) are the primary contributors.

Yes, numerous thermal generation plants have gone offline in the past ten years because they cannot compete with wind due to taxpayer subsidies for wind. Those subsidies cause wind to continue to produce even with the wholesale price for electricity goes to NEGATIVE $23, since wind gets $23/MW from taxpayer subsidies. ERCOT wholesale price goes to -$22? Wind keeps going because they will still make $1 and it costs nothing to keep the turbines running.

Also, wind and solar cannot produce on demand. If the wind ain't blowing, wind turbines aren't generating. Solar can only produce when the sun is shining. Solar is a negligible percentage of Texas generation anyhow.

What happens often when the weather is its' hottest? The wind dies. So recently when it started warming up, wind was only producing between 1 and 3 GW. The maximum wind production is around 25 MW if I recall correctly. 17-20 MW is not unusual. An unexpected outage in a thermal plant and we have a crisis.

The thermal generators that CAN produce on demand are fewer in number (thus less capacity). So the system is far less forgiving.

Adding more wind with its taxpayer subsidies just drives more thermal out of business. Making the risk far greater.

 

[oldag]

I've peddled electricity to the consumer/metered for a bit over 40 years.
I know how close we've come to blackouts in the last few decades.
It'll get worse before it gets better. But government ain't the answer. It's the problem.

Taxpayer subsidies for renewables is the specific problem. And the politicians Americans have elected have enacted the tax breaks. The greenies have won.

 

[oldag]

I haven't kept up with the details on our infrastructure increases as to the power grid, but it only makes sense that Texas is increasing in population each day and that sucks off our water supplies and power grid. If all we're building are windmills and solar panels, those dogs won't hunt when the wind doesn't blow or at night. Any reason why we can't simply build more nuclear power plants like in France?

You have the solution. But nuke plants have been regulated out of existence. Permitting alone takes over a decade.

 

[mavs]

Yes, wind and solar (to a lesser extent because solar generation is small) are the primary contributors.

Yes, numerous thermal generation plants have gone offline in the past ten years because they cannot compete with wind due to taxpayer subsidies for wind. Those subsidies cause wind to continue to produce even with the wholesale price for electricity goes to NEGATIVE $23, since wind gets $23/MW from taxpayer subsidies. ERCOT wholesale price goes to -$22? Wind keeps going because they will still make $1 and it costs nothing to keep the turbines running.

Also, wind and solar cannot produce on demand. If the wind ain't blowing, wind turbines aren't generating. Solar can only produce when the sun is shining. Solar is a negligible percentage of Texas generation anyhow.

What happens often when the weather is its' hottest? The wind dies. So recently when it started warming up, wind was only producing between 1 and 3 GW. The maximum wind production is around 25 MW if I recall correctly. 17-20 MW is not unusual. An unexpected outage in a thermal plant and we have a crisis.

The thermal generators that CAN produce on demand are fewer in number (thus less capacity). So the system is far less forgiving.

Adding more wind with its taxpayer subsidies just drives more thermal out of business. Making the risk far greater.

Absolutely correct and that is the issue I want to see addressed and remedied by the governor and he is doing pretty much nothing for real. We need new gas fired power generation plants built and nuclear generation, but there are absolutely zero in the current plan.

 

[Brains]

I'm still waiting for parts for my pool after spending $5K on repairs. I was lucky to have pipes burst while I was in the house and could shut the water off at the street. We were without power for 75 straight hours.

Unforeseen things will happen. Stop looking for someone to blame, it won't change the past. For future reference, you should:
1. Turn off the water supply at the street.
2. Turn off your water heaters and drain
3. Open your water outlets and drain.
4. Pull the drain plugs on your pool equipment and drain (pumps, heater, filter, etc.). Put empty water bottles in the skimmers. Throw a few empty jugs and other 'squishy' stuff in the pool.
5. Light your fireplace.

 

[benenglish]

Didnt you post an abbot has to go about electric thread as Gambler?

Asking for @Axxe55

Now that I think about it didnt you use the same avatar when you were Gambler?

IIRC that is.

Well, your post got reported to us mods for investigation.

I don't necessarily connect different accounts that engage in similar silliness because I figure if there's one silly person in the world there are probably another dozen exactly like him. However, once the report was made, due diligence requires I do an investigation.

I'll spare you the details. Going back through the board network logs, I found that Gambler has re-joined under at least 3 other user names that got banned pretty quickly. I was able to link those accounts in a chain where, wouldn't you know it, the most recent link was to mavs. While I could be wrong, I believe mavs is a sock puppet/alter ego for Gambler.

When I ban him, I'll provide him with info on how to appeal the ban if he's willing to prove, somehow, that he's not Gambler.

 

[Axxe55]

Well, your post got reported to us mods for investigation.

I don't necessarily connect different accounts that engage in similar silliness because I figure if there's one silly person in the world there are probably another dozen exactly like him. However, once the report was made, due diligence requires I do an investigation.

I'll spare you the details. Going back through the board network logs, I found that Gambler has re-joined under at least 3 other user names that got banned pretty quickly. I was able to link those accounts in a chain where, wouldn't you know it, the most recent link was to mavs. While I could be wrong, I believe mavs is a sock puppet/alter ego for Gambler.

When I ban him, I'll provide him with info on how to appeal the ban if he's willing to prove, somehow, that he's not Gambler.

Thing is, Gambler more than likely will show back up again at some point, under a new username. He keeps turning back up like a bad penny.

And he ain't real bright either. His posting style, usage of certain words and sentence structure are all very similar regardless of what username he posts under. He also seems to use the same areas when posting about places he frequents, the same guns and references the same people in his posts. So after reading a few of his posts, it kind of starts being like deja vu with his posts.

And the thing is, he always comes back to try and stir shit, or get people pissed off at him with his posts.

 

[majormadmax]

Absolutely correct and that is the issue I want to see addressed and remedied by the governor and he is doing pretty much nothing for real. We need new gas fired power generation plants built and nuclear generation, but there are absolutely zero in the current plan.

Are you intentionally being ignorant, or blatantly ignoring the information I posted that is contrary to what you claiming?!?

Honestly, when the facts are readily available you should consider them in your argument; otherwise you're just spouting unsubstantiated bullshit!

it must be a seriously pathetic life you have to constantly sneak back onto this forum to get attention...

 

[EdLaCrosse]

Unforeseen things will happen. Stop looking for someone to blame, it won't change the past. For future reference, you should:
1. Turn off the water supply at the street.
2. Turn off your water heaters and drain
3. Open your water outlets and drain.
4. Pull the drain plugs on your pool equipment and drain (pumps, heater, filter, etc.). Put empty water bottles in the skimmers. Throw a few empty jugs and other 'squishy' stuff in the pool.
5. Light your fireplace.

I'm not looking for anyone to "blame". I just want some insight into the reliability design parameters of our grid so I can make good decisions myself. I've lived in North Texas for over 35 years and have only experienced minor power outages (less than a couple hours) and a couple "rolling blackouts" over that time. Consequently, I did not expect the spectacular failure we experienced in February and was not adequately prepared for it. What should I be expecting in the future?

My burst pipe occurred at my washing machine. It didn't occur to me that I needed to let that pipe "drip", and, on reflection, I'm not sure it would have been a good idea anyway.

My fireplace is effectively an ornament -- useless for heating the house. I could replace it with a "proper" insert, but that costs money I'd like to trade off against the likelihood of future electrical grid failures.

You're suggesting that I close and winterize my pool every year. If I do that, I can't use the pool -- or spa -- until I re-open it. Seems like a bit of a waste to me unless grid reliability is going to continue to be a problem.

A better solution might be to buy a generator to compensate for an unreliable grid. Those are expensive, and again, I need some information about what to expect out of the power grid to know if spending money on a generator is a good investment.

Granted, February was an extremely rare weather event and the grid failure might not ever happen again because we may never see another similar weather event in our lifetimes. But what I've read suggests that our increasing reliance on and subsidies favoring "green" sources of energy, which are unreliable as sources of "base" power, will lead to decreasing grid reliability in the future.

Again, I'm not looking to blame anyone. I'm looking for good data on which to base personal decisions. If we're going to design our grid with low reliability to keep rates low, then I may buy a generator.

 

[oldag]

I'm not looking for anyone to "blame". I just want some insight into the reliability design parameters of our grid so I can make good decisions myself. I've lived in North Texas for over 35 years and have only experienced minor power outages (less than a couple hours) and a couple "rolling blackouts" over that time. Consequently, I did not expect the spectacular failure we experienced in February and was not adequately prepared for it. What should I be expecting in the future?

My burst pipe occurred at my washing machine. It didn't occur to me that I needed to let that pipe "drip", and, on reflection, I'm not sure it would have been a good idea anyway.

My fireplace is effectively an ornament -- useless for heating the house. I could replace it with a "proper" insert, but that costs money I'd like to trade off against the likelihood of future electrical grid failures.

You're suggesting that I close and winterize my pool every year. If I do that, I can't use the pool -- or spa -- until I re-open it. Seems like a bit of a waste to me unless grid reliability is going to continue to be a problem.

A better solution might be to buy a generator to compensate for an unreliable grid. Those are expensive, and again, I need some information about what to expect out of the power grid to know if spending money on a generator is a good investment.

Granted, February was an extremely rare weather event and the grid failure might not ever happen again because we may never see another similar weather event in our lifetimes. But what I've read suggests that our increasing reliance on and subsidies favoring "green" sources of energy, which are unreliable as sources of "base" power, will lead to decreasing grid reliability in the future.

Again, I'm not looking to blame anyone. I'm looking for good data on which to base personal decisions. If we're going to design our grid with low reliability to keep rates low, then I may buy a generator.

If you want to take the time to study ERCOT data, you will find that with each passing year demand comes closer and closer to exceeding supply during peak periods. And this summer even when demand was well below peak.

This is going to get worse before it gets better. I recently purchased a generator, and I don't spend money casually.

 

[EdLaCrosse]

If you want to take the time to study ERCOT data, you will find that with each passing year demand comes closer and closer to exceeding supply during peak periods. And this summer even when demand was well below peak.

This is going to get worse before it gets better. I recently purchased a generator, and I don't spend money casually.

You're right if nothing is done to "correct" the supply/demand imbalance.

I recall considerable hand-wringing and earnest meetings were held in the wake of the disaster, plus there was some attention paid to the problem by our state legislature. Evidently all that hand-wringing and legislative attention produced no plans to correct the problem. I was naively hoping to get some assessment of reliability given certain improvements. Again, nothing.

This takes us back to the OP and the question of why grid reliability is not part of the special session. I get that "everything" can't be included and that other things may be more important to consider in the special session. But, to your point, a lot of us will be forced to add generators to our home infrastructure if nothing is done about the looming reliability issues that were exposed in February.

 

[oldag]

You're right if nothing is done to "correct" the supply/demand imbalance.

I recall considerable hand-wringing and earnest meetings were held in the wake of the disaster, plus there was some attention paid to the problem by our state legislature. Evidently all that hand-wringing and legislative attention produced no plans to correct the problem. I was naively hoping to get some assessment of reliability given certain improvements. Again, nothing.

This takes us back to the OP and the question of why grid reliability is not part of the special session. I get that "everything" can't be included and that other things may be more important to consider in the special session. But, to your point, a lot of us will be forced to add generators to our home infrastructure if nothing is done about the looming reliability issues that were exposed in February.

The only way to correct the imbalance is to build more thermal generation capacity. And that takes years. And no one is going to build thermal in Texas under the current system. Some are willing to do so if they receive capacity payments, which is not part of the current scheme and would probably require legislation. Again, years away not even including permitting and construction leadtimes.

 

[Brains]

I'm not looking for anyone to "blame". I just want some insight into the reliability design parameters of our grid so I can make good decisions myself. I've lived in North Texas for over 35 years and have only experienced minor power outages (less than a couple hours) and a couple "rolling blackouts" over that time. Consequently, I did not expect the spectacular failure we experienced in February and was not adequately prepared for it. What should I be expecting in the future?

That's the point, NOBODY EXPECTED THIS. You weren't so omnipotent to have foreseen it, yet you're expecting others to?

My burst pipe occurred at my washing machine. It didn't occur to me that I needed to let that pipe "drip", and, on reflection, I'm not sure it would have been a good idea anyway.

I didn't say drip, I said drain. Full on winterize after the realization the power may not be back on soon. I was very fortunate in that I only lost power for 16 hours, but I was fully prepared to winterize the entire house if the inside temps got close to freezing. Even with the water on, I routinely paid very special attention to every single exterior hose bib, and every water line that ran on an exterior wall.

My fireplace is effectively an ornament -- useless for heating the house. I could replace it with a "proper" insert, but that costs money I'd like to trade off against the likelihood of future electrical grid failures.

Mine is technically an ornament too, being a ceramic log, tempered glass front, no forced air, gas fired box. Still, I put my 2 D batteries in it and fired that sucker up even before the power went out. Guess what, in those 16 hours my big house only dropped to the low 60's. As you can imagine, I was quite amazed. Either way, any heat input is better than none.

You're suggesting that I close and winterize my pool every year. If I do that, I can't use the pool -- or spa -- until I re-open it. Seems like a bit of a waste to me unless grid reliability is going to continue to be a problem.

Not even close to suggesting that. I'm suggesting you do exactly what I did. The power went out for me at 6:30am, and I woke up by 7:00am. Ten minutes later I was outside, and everything at my equipment pad was drained. It's really, really easy. I was then at zero risk of losing my equipment. Power came on late that evening, but I left it drained for two more days to make sure power would be stable. It was, so I popped the drain plugs in and turned the equipment back on. 10 more minutes spent, and the pool was back up and running. That was time well spent, in my opinion.

A better solution might be to buy a generator to compensate for an unreliable grid. Those are expensive, and again, I need some information about what to expect out of the power grid to know if spending money on a generator is a good investment.

No you don't. You just need to decide what being without power is worth to you. You need to decide if being without power is more of an inconvenience than the money you'll spend to not be. Period.

Granted, February was an extremely rare weather event and the grid failure might not ever happen again because we may never see another similar weather event in our lifetimes.

Now you're tracking.

But what I've read suggests that our increasing reliance on and subsidies favoring "green" sources of energy, which are unreliable as sources of "base" power, will lead to decreasing grid reliability in the future.

Will, or may? There's more variables to the equation, many of which are unknowns. Energy storage is really the puzzle piece we can't yet put into place. Power consumption is becoming less predictable, and not because of weather. Generation itself is easy, but generation is response to rapid demand is hard. We actually have enough generation capacity. In February we were unable to, for various reasons, bring it online when we needed it. To increase reliability we need a way to store excess generation, which we currently can't economically do.

Again, I'm not looking to blame anyone. I'm looking for good data on which to base personal decisions. If we're going to design our grid with low reliability to keep rates low, then I may buy a generator.

Our grid isn't any less reliable than any other, from the data I've seen posted around. If you want good "data" on which to base your "personal" decisions, what you're really looking for is advice you agree with. It still boils down to what is uninterrupted power worth to you, financially? If you have natural gas at the house you are well within your ..uh.. power to have it with a whole-home generator setup.[/quote][/QUOTE]

 

[toddnjoyce]

…This takes us back to the OP and the question of why grid reliability is not part of the special session…

About the only thing the lege could do is use state dollars to build thermal plants. Can’t pass a law forcing private companies to build new plants.

 

[oldag]

About the only thing the lege could do is use state dollars to build thermal plants. Can’t pass a law forcing private companies to build new plants.

Private companies have already offered to build thermal plants - if they can come to financial terms with the state regarding compensation (e.g., capacity payment).

 

[toddnjoyce]

Private companies have already offered to build thermal plants - if they can come to financial terms with the state regarding compensation (e.g., capacity payment).

And therein lies the problem. An efficient market abhors excess, in this case thermal capacity. Since capacity payment will have to cover expenses to design, build, operate, and waste electric, it’s essentially the same as if the state were to build it themselves unless that is passed on to the consumers thru PUC regulatory fees for ‘surplus in case needed’ capacity.

 

[oldag]

And therein lies the problem. An efficient market abhors excess, in this case thermal capacity. Since capacity payment will have to cover expenses to design, build, operate, and waste electric, it’s essentially the same as if the state were to build it themselves unless that is passed on to the consumers thru PUC regulatory fees for ‘surplus in case needed’ capacity.

Agree.

We would not need the peakers to such an extent were it not for wind.

 

[Grumps21]

If you want to take the time to study ERCOT data, you will find that with each passing year demand comes closer and closer to exceeding supply during peak periods. And this summer even when demand was well below peak.

This is going to get worse before it gets better. I recently purchased a generator, and I don't spend money casually.

I bought one as well a couple of months ago along with a window AC sized to my home office room and a cheap low watt microwave oven. I work from home, and if I lose power then I have to have a work around. Otherwise, I’ll be burning vacation time until the power is restored.

 

[gll]

I actually feed the grid about half the solar production from my 9kw array, so I am a net producer... At least in summer, my peak production pretty much coincides with peak use. The co-op pays me for my excess production at their wholesale rate, same as all the rest of the energy they buy on contract.

While I did receive a federal tax credit on my system, due to my low income I've only applied a few percent of the credit in 6 years.

I have some battery backup and a Miller Bobcat 250 for emergency power. I also have one well running solar direct from a 1200 watt array.