Gun Value Appreciation Last 10-15 Years

[majormadmax]

I keep a spreadsheet of all the firearms I own, including the price I paid for them, which got me thinking about their appreciate in value so I did a little research...

I've found opinions of everything from "Quality fire arms increase in value at about the same rate of inflation. 2-3% a year, 15 years that can as much as 45%" to "In general, new factory-produced firearms depreciate about 15% when they are purchased. After that initial depreciation, guns generally hold their value for the next 15 years while only losing an additional 1% per year. Guns that are 15 years old generally don’t lose any value until year 50 when they start to appreciate about .5% per year" to even "Most new guns lose about 20-30% of their value after you 'drive them off the lot'!”

I've even seen "Guns are not an investment."

While I get that last point, I fundamentally disagree with the claim certain firearms don't increase in value and shouldn't be collected with the intent with their increasing in value.

Which gets to my question...generally, how much have your firearms increased in value say over the last 10-15 years?

I know certain guns will gain value quicker than others, and I realized the current or potential political climate greatly affects the cost of guns and ammo; I'm looking for a reasonable estimate on how much my collection is worth.

At this point, I generally agree with the 2-3% average; but also realize some initially cheap milsurps I paid $99 15 years ago and now selling for 4-5x that price!

 

[grumper]

If I sold my AR-15 sear now I'd get all my money back plus enough extra to make my MP5 essentially a free gun.

It's been just a tad over 15 years, got it in 2008. Market price is now 5x what it was then.

 

[robertc1024]

Lordy - the stuff I have, or got for cheap is going for a lot. 10 years ago, what was a JM stamped Marlin 336 going for - maybe $500 tops? Easily $8-900. El-Cheapo SKS - 2x+. Nice HiPower, close to 2x. What hasn't really gone up that much were some of the nice revolvers I have. At the time, admittedly, I paid top $$ for them, but a mint 5" S&W 27-2 hasn't changed as much.

 

[Lead Belly]

None of mine have appreciated at all as this is just a hobby and I love Bill of Sales.

How did I do?

 

[V-Tach]

I don't think collections are going to be such a great investment when all of them are going to have to go through an FFL to be sold.......................Large collections 300+ are already a nightmare to sell............

Glad I won't be around when it happens...............

 

[robertc1024]

I need to start selling stuff. Nobody in my family is interested. Gave some oddball - uh - Unique (yeah - that's it) things away last year to friends. Got a few collectible things that are just gathering dust.

 

[Texasjack]

Certain guns go up in value. Most don't. Used guns nearly always have some wear and tear that depreciates the value. Likewise, technology changes and customer tastes change. A Winchester Model 12 shotgun would probably cost $2000 or more if it was manufactured today, but you can find them for $700. Why? Largely because they don't have screw-in chokes. Steel shot made that a necessity. Savage Model 99 was once more expensive than Winchester's price for a lever action rifle, but old Winchesters are far more valued than old 99s because Hollywood made Winchesters "cool".

Panic drives up price more than anything. Look at the booming prices for "black rifles" after the Clinton and Obama ban scares. Right now, prices have nose dived for those same rifles. Next panic, they'll be heading up again.

 

[Grumps21]

It’s a mistake to say “I purchased *this* gun for $x 20 years ago and now it’s worth $xx”. Taken in comparison with the costs of other goods - cars, burgers, blue jeans, etc, most of those gains are just the result of inflation, and nothing to do with inherent increase in value. I say most, not all.

 

[DaBull]

No data here, just impressions from experience.

Milsurps are often thought of as budget weapons, but they sure seem to go up in value quickly once the supplies of new imports dry up. Some are bought by bargain hunters looking for military quality, some by collectors, and others by nostalgic ex-soldiers, but all serve to rapidly deplete the international inventory and then drive up prices when the have nots start looking for something for themselves.

I agree new production pistols tend to depreciate quickly. I think this is because the two main buyers are gun enthusiasts who have 5, 10, even 20 pistols and are now looking for a new fix, and first timers who want something but don't know what to buy so they just get the newest, hottest thing according to ads and word of mouth. In either case, they buy when advertising-fueled demand outstrips supply and prices are high. But prices soon drop when the next hottest thing comes along.

Vintage guns from your childhood/early adulthood seem to hold value or appreciate (perhaps its just inflation) because demand outstrips supply. As years pass, interested buyers enter their peak earning years and now have the means to acquire everything that they could not afford to acquire in their childhood or early adult years. This is a predictable pattern with a lot of collectors when it comes to antiques, vintage cars, vintage toys, and home audio.

The market is what it is. Its too big to control, but fluctuations can be exploited with timing. I have purchased 9mm for $8-$25 per 50 round box over the years and I have seen run of the mill ARs go for $350 to $1200. Sometimes you come out ahead, and sometimes you don't.

 

[MTA]

I need to start selling stuff. Nobody in my family is interested. Gave some oddball - uh - Unique (yeah - that's it) things away last year to friends. Got a few collectible things that are just gathering dust.

We are your family and we are interested

 

[Hoji]

None of mine have appreciated at all as this is just a hobby and I love Bill of Sales.

How did I do?

The Flyin’ J is that way >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

[Lead Belly]

Serious note here: Say you did collect wisely- chose clean specimens and stored them properly for decades and they appreciated a bit. Like others here have mentioned, how will we be able to convert them into currency in the future? Family members will want 1 or 2 each, if future regulations even allow, but what about the majority of your collection? Add to this the fact that there are millions of Americans also unloading collections simultaneously- supply and demand will come into play.

It is abundantly obvious that legislators want to remove firearms from the hands of their rightful owners. Will you or your children be able to even capitalize on your acquisition efforts in the future, and to what degree? Multiple firearms are universally less valuable if you need to hide them under floorboards and can't enjoy them at the range or out on a hunt. Ask New Yorkers, who get relentlessly hassled just driving to the range with their rightfully purchased property. States are attacking FFL's now. Washington State most likely succumbed just last night to a vote. The writing is on the wall. Sanctuary state status has been denied by the Supremes. Big mess.

These pics are from Australia's confiscation and many are vintage beauties and family heirlooms.
We can't let that happen here, but how??

 

[majormadmax]

...and I love Bill of Sales.

How did I do?

Who is Bill of Sales, and does he require bills of sale?

 

[1911'S 4 Me]

Who is Bill of Sales, and does he require bills of sale?

The brother of Soupy Sales.

 

[TheDan]

I view guns as more of a commodity. Generally as long as they are functional they'll lose 15-20% off new and then track real inflation. Just like with other commodities there will be times where they are more or less in demand and price will fluctuate accordingly. There's also always arbitrage situations.

Of course there are collector items will do well, but you have to have a knack for collectibles. That's it's own skillset.

What's interesting to me is seeing things that were considered junk like Mosins, SKSs, Siagas now valued considerably more, and the marvel of modern manufacturing driving the price of AR15s down to the minimum cost of production.

 

[Lead Belly]

Who is Bill of Sales, and does he require bills of sale?

Not real good at jokes, I see.

1 Bill of Sale that cover multiple sales would be....a single Bill of multiple Sales.

And no, I don't do that baloney. It's a joke, for the eyes out there that read this.

 

[DaBull]

Not real good at jokes, I see.

1 Bill of Sale that cover multiple sales would be....a single Bill of multiple Sales.

And no, I don't do that baloney. It's a joke, for the eyes out there that read this.

Aw\s awkward as it sounds, I have heard the term Bills of Sale as the plural of Bill of Sale.

 

[srab]

I guess that I've just chosen the wrong firearms to purchase in the first place!

For instance, I bought a Dakota Arms .300 Dakota back in the mid 90's (before practically every major manufacturer came out with a beltless magnum). Still a great rifle, but brass is now practically unobtainable. I also bought a Tikka .300 WSM right around 2000. Still a great little cartridge, but not the latest-greatest, and it has a similar, though not quite as severe, problem with brass availability. And, without a reliable source for reasonably priced ammunition for either cartridge, the market for resale seems to get smaller and smaller.

Meanwhile, my 6mm Rem, 6.5X55, and .338 Win Mag have all seen renewed competition from newfangled cartridge designs that do the essentially the same thing in a slightly different package. And, as above, ammunition/brass supplies for the older stuff have dwindled to a trickle.

Sorry to say that many of my firearms are now worth a good bit less than that presumptive 15% initial depreciation, compared with what I paid for them 20-30 years ago, despite the fact that I baby them meticulously.

But, that's OK. I didn't really buy them as an investment.

 

[majormadmax]

Aw\s awkward as it sounds, I have heard the term Bills of Sale as the plural of Bill of Sale.

That is correct.

(bɪl əv seɪl) Word forms: (plural) bills of sale.

https://www.collinsdictionary.com/us/dictionary/english/bill-of-sale

 

[majormadmax]

Not real good at jokes, I see.

1 Bill of Sale that cover multiple sales would be....a single Bill of multiple Sales.

And no, I don't do that baloney. It's a joke, for the eyes out there that read this.

I'm better at jokes than you are at grammar!!