A Message From Federal, CCI, Speer And Remington President Jason Vanderbrink On Ammo Demand

[gambler]

This is true. But, it's the same for any business that deals with seasonal, panic, emergency, etc. purchasing situations. We, as firearms enthusiasts, can support these businesses by shooting the shit out of all our ammo and buying more. (I'm kidding. sort of.) haha

I can't think of too many businesses that are dealing with the level of panic buying except ammo and toilet paper.

I know I'm not shooting the shit out of my 9mm ammo. Actually I went and bought a second .22 to shoot so wife and I could shoot together and I did not shoot my 9mm. I seem to be able to keep plenty of 22 ammo and shoot it a lot. Don't figure I will need 22 for defensive purposes, but if I start shooting 9mm again as I used to, it will take a good bit of time before I could shoot it all up.

And he will still have to deal with the downturn when it comes. Laying off people is no fun no matter what the cause.

 

[gambler]

Managing the drop off in demand is certainly on his mind, but I have to wonder about their economic models. If we agree that demand will again drop off, can we also agree that a coupla years after that, we'll again have some political BS which causes another spike and shortage?

In the past decades (remember we had 2 terms of Obama) there have been several gun and ammo shortages. And yes, two years ago ammo prices were cheap and supply was plentiful, Federal was running only 1 shift a day instead of the 3 shifts they are now running.

And that's my question about their economic models. Since we now have over a decade with these ammo shortages on a recurring basis, I have to wonder if keeping production high during the slow years (and paying to ship / warehouse the ammo for a coupla years in a reasonably dry environment, like say the desert of Arizona) makes economic sense.

If we can agree that there is a demand for billions of rounds that is currently unmet, and billions of rounds takes months or even years to manufacture, then had they continued a modestly-elevated level of production during the Trump years and stored the surplus, they would be able to sell every single one of those stored rounds in the present market. Obviously if they had that kind of supply then it would be impossible to demand the ultra-premium prices at which ammo is presently being sold, but could they sell that warehoused ammo at a modest markup to cover the transport/warehousing costs when demand got high enough to exceed normal production?

It's easy to say, "Obviously not, because they're not doing it", and that may in fact be true, but it is also be true that companies often encounter resistance when contemplating changes to entrenched practices, and companies that are politically incorrect might be more risk-averse than companies in other industries. Maybe after another decade of shortages someone will take a flyer on increasing production....we'll see.

Carrying lots of inventory is pretty much never a good business decision. The lack of supply is not a problem for him, it is a problem for you. Lots and lots of inventory is a great way to find your way to bankruptcy.

 

[GeorgeS]

The choke point is the distributors. Ask any LGS what the problem is, and they'll probably tell you that they cannot get ammunition from the distributor.

 

[gambler]

The choke point is the distributors. Ask any LGS what the problem is, and they'll probably tell you that they cannot get ammunition from the distributor.

Well if the distributors don't have enough ammo....it's very difficult to get it from them. The distributors are servicing their best and biggest customers first as well. I will guarantee you that the distributors are not hoarding ammo.

 

[mitchntx]

I think his biggest concern should probably be that one day this demand will drop off and people will likely have more ammo than they will need in the short term. Consequently his sales are like to drop through the floor, his equipment will be cut back or idled completely, people will have to be laid off and suppliers will be shut off.

His biggest management challenge is ahead of him and nothing he can do to avoid the problems he will face.

Like any US corporation, the shareholder equity will reward him with ba-zillions in bonuses. When the demand begins to trail off, "the board and management team" will shudder lines and lay off all those workers in order to maintain small shortages, high demand and prices ... again, to maintain shareholder equity.

It's no longer about the customer, it's all about the shareholder.

I was caught up in that toilet bowl. I don't sound bitter, do i?

 

[V-Tach]

Ammo is getting out, but demand is out pacing supply....Distributors aren't getting enough ammo to go around and reps are getting ammo to those accounts that help them pay their bills...i.e. volume........the small shops are having a very tough time....I have no problem with them putting out the video's......but the first one came across as a little whiney......to me....

 

[GeorgeS]

Well if the distributors don't have enough ammo....it's very difficult to get it from them. The distributors are servicing their best and biggest customers first as well.

And yet the manufacturers are pumping out ammunition daily.

Do you not remember the .22LR shortage of four years ago? Within days of the election, .22LR appeared on shelves everywhere in unlimited quantities.

 

[gambler]

Like any US corporation, the shareholder equity will reward him with ba-zillions in bonuses. When the demand begins to trail off, "the board and management team" will shudder lines and lay off all those workers in order to maintain small shortages, high demand and prices ... again, to maintain shareholder equity.

It's no longer about the customer, it's all about the shareholder.

I was caught up in that toilet bowl. I don't sound bitter, do i?

I sure hope it's about the shareholder, that's why I spend lots more money invested in stocks than I do in ammo !

 

[gambler]

And yet the manufacturers are pumping out ammunition daily.

Do you not remember the .22LR shortage of four years ago? Within days of the election, .22LR appeared on shelves everywhere in unlimited quantities.

So you are saying the distributors are hoarding ammo ?

 

[deemus]

I'd think reloading equipment would be flying off the shelves.

stopped at Cabelas yesterday. It’s as low as I’ve ever seen it.
16# of powder.
Zero primers
Maybe 60 boxes of bullets compared to the usual thousand or more.

it’s amazing how little they had.

on the ammo shelf, usually 12-15 rows of fully stacked ammo. Yesterday there were 4 partial rows of stuff nobody wants. 17 Hornet, 218 Bee, 50 BMG, 338 Lapua, and a few other oddball calibers.

they did have appx 100 boxes of Win XM193 556 for $11. I left it for those who need it.

 

[gambler]

stopped at Cabelas yesterday. It’s as low as I’ve ever seen it.
16# of powder.
Zero primers
Maybe 60 boxes of bullets compared to the usual thousand or more.

it’s amazing how little they had.

on the ammo shelf, usually 12-15 rows of fully stacked ammo. Yesterday there were 4 partial rows of stuff nobody wants. 17 Hornet, 218 Bee, 50 BMG, 338 Lapua, and a few other oddball calibers.

they did have appx 100 boxes of Win XM193 556 for $11. I left it for those who need it.

Cabellas and every other place I know has been that way for months !

 

[deemus]

Cabellas and every other place I know has been that way for months !

3 months ago they had 5 times what I saw yesterday .

 

[Texas42]

I can't think of too many businesses that are dealing with the level of panic buying except ammo and toilet paper.

I know I'm not shooting the shit out of my 9mm ammo. Actually I went and bought a second .22 to shoot so wife and I could shoot together and I did not shoot my 9mm. I seem to be able to keep plenty of 22 ammo and shoot it a lot. Don't figure I will need 22 for defensive purposes, but if I start shooting 9mm again as I used to, it will take a good bit of time before I could shoot it all up.

And he will still have to deal with the downturn when it comes. Laying off people is no fun no matter what the cause.

Lots of industries have boom/bust cycle.

It was fun to live in west Texas during residency.

 

[Vaquero]

Lots of industries have boom/bust cycle.

It was fun to love love in west Texas during residency.

Heh

 

[Younggun]

I figure the people who are butt hurt by what he says are the ones he’s talking g about spinning up crazy conspiracies about hidden stockpiles and reduced factory output.


When I first watched the vid I thought “well that’s pretty rude”, but I quickly realized he wasn’t talking about me because I’m not blaming ammo manufacturers for the shortage. And I have no issue with those people getting angry and leaving those products on the shelf for me to buy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[gambler]

I figure the people who are butt hurt by what he says are the ones he’s talking g about spinning up crazy conspiracies about hidden stockpiles and reduced factory output.


When I first watched the vid I thought “well that’s pretty rude”, but I quickly realized he wasn’t talking about me because I’m not blaming ammo manufacturers for the shortage. And I have no issue with those people getting angry and leaving those products on the shelf for me to buy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I don't understand why he is the least bit worried about the complainers. I would guess that they are doing everything they possibly can to maximize their output and make as much as they can while this market exists.

 

[Wiliamr]

Once the Democrats start to pass all their anti-gun legislation things will get really interesting. All these new gun owners will be the wild card - will they, now that they have guns< knuckle under to the Democrat rule or will they push back against their Democrat represtative in House and Senate about not registering, taxing, government mandated buy up, etc.

 

[gambler]

3 months ago they had 5 times what I saw yesterday .

So 3 months ago they had 300 boxes of stuff that nobody wants ?

 

[gambler]

Once the Democrats start to pass all their anti-gun legislation things will get really interesting. All these new gun owners will be the wild card - will they, now that they have guns< knuckle under to the Democrat rule or will they push back against their Democrat represtative in House and Senate about not registering, taxing, government mandated buy up, etc.

So you think all of the new gun owners are democrats ? And what good would it do anyway if the "push back against their democrat represtative in the house or senate about not registering, taxin, government mandated buy up, etc." Those people don't much give a shit about what those people want.

 

[vmax]

Id like to think most of us learned from the sandy hook run and didn't get caught off guard this time and this demand is the new gun owners and hoarders mostly
The guys at Academy here say mostly its the same group of people that show up every day for ammo and hang out like vultures
Its the "horray for me and to hell with you" bunch..