Coronavirus Epidemic

[etmo]

I wonder how many more hitches we are going to hear about? Especially ones in the death toll count.

But still, Wuhan was a city of over 11 million folks. 60k is about 1/2 of 1% of the population.

But we really don't know the true numbers.

Wasn't there a recent change in the criteria to be included in the count? Thought I read something, but can't seem to find it now

 

[Moonpie]

Just read something about Vietnam quarantining a village of 10k.

 

[kbaxter60]

The mathematical models are painting a bleak picture:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/14/disease-modelers-see-future-of-covid-19/

 

[Dad_Roman]

What a buncha horseshit. Numbers get too high so they just rename it!

Shoot. That fixed everything!

 

[Younggun]

Are we all dead yet?

I think I died of Ebola a little while back so I should be ok.


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[EZ-E]

Are we all dead yet?

I think I died of Ebola a little while back so I should be ok.


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I dont think Ebola has killed near as many people in a short time span.

Just pulled this up from Wiki.

Between 1976 and 2013, the World Health Organization reports 24 outbreaks involving 2,387 cases with 1,590 deaths.[1][12] The largest outbreak to date was the epidemic in West Africa, which occurred from December 2013, to January 2016, with 28,646 cases and 11,323 deaths.

 

[kbaxter60]

Here's a response to a question many of us have considered:
Can you get Coronavirus from a package shipped from China?
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/c...CF_L6MaoVdv+b6Dw29b64zosC4H71KA01FRuSpjhcUllr

 

[Younggun]

I dont think Ebola has killed near as many people in a short time span.

Just pulled this up from Wiki.

Between 1976 and 2013, the World Health Organization reports 24 outbreaks involving 2,387 cases with 1,590 deaths.[1][12] The largest outbreak to date was the epidemic in West Africa, which occurred from December 2013, to January 2016, with 28,646 cases and 11,323 deaths.

My comment was more of a sarcastic way of pointing out that news media did all kinds of fear mongering over Ebola trying to get people to watch, and I have no doubt they are doing the same now. Same with Swine flu.

I just don’t trust it. And when I see some projection of about massive world wide infection numbers it reminds me of how they treat global warming, pushing the absolute worst case scenario generated by computer models made by people who can’t possible account for all the variables or even fully understand them.

I can look at an infection map and see that with all the travel that takes place and as long as this has been going on, it’s still basically stuck in China with no major outbreaks anywhere else. And China is a communist shit hole despite their attempts to look like a modern 1st world nation.

I just have a real hard time believing it is a serious threat to the US right now.


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[kbaxter60]

My comment was more of a sarcastic way of pointing out that news media did all kinds of fear mongering over Ebola trying to get people to watch, and I have no doubt they are doing the same now. Same with Swine flu.

I just don’t trust it. And when I see some projection of about massive world wide infection numbers it reminds me of how they treat global warming, pushing the absolute worst case scenario generated by computer models made by people who can’t possible account for all the variables or even fully understand them.

I can look at an infection map and see that with all the travel that takes place and as long as this has been going on, it’s still basically stuck in China with no major outbreaks anywhere else. And China is a communist shit hole despite their attempts to look like a modern 1st world nation.

I just have a real hard time believing it is a serious threat to the US right now.


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Yeah, I got the sarcasm, if that helps.

I have posted a few times to this thread, not for fear-mongering, but because I am interested in how this plays out. I really don't believe that we're getting truth from the Chinese government, so it makes me wonder how bad it actually is there. From all I've read, it sounds like it's readily transmitted but does not have a huge mortality rate. So you would think it would be easy to "squash". Yet many have commented about how bad China is at handling this stuff. Probably true, but I have traveled there a couple of times on business and found it to be modern, mostly clean, and fairly efficient as countries go. I did NOT get a good feel for how bad their government really is, although we were told there would be gov plants watching us.

The wife and I saw a great documentary on the Ebola scare. And it sounds like it could have been far worse if they had not had some experimental drugs that proved to be very effective (and came at the last minute for some of the medical workers who had been in Africa).

I hope that this COVID stuff is a big nothingburger. And it WILL be nice when it's out of the news cycle.

 

[Dad_Roman]

..... but does not have a huge mortality rate.

Its a bit of a "perspective" thing for all of us. We think in terms of the Flu and its death rate is in the 0.015% per 100K range depending on what numbers you look at. This Coronavirus is in the 2.2% per 100K range. .015% sounds like nothin (unless its you) and even 2.2% sounds like practically nothin. These figures usually calculated on a per 100K scale.

SO perspective wise, kind of a nothingburger.

BUT, if you do the math (and PLEASE feel free to dblcheck my math) you come up with a figure that will scare the hell outta you and its so big I dont even want to write it in hopes that Im wrong. (14,000% worse than Flu)

PLEASE point out where ive made a mistake.

Based on 14.5 deaths per 100K with flu.

 

[DoubleDuty]

I nearly died from the Flu a decade ago.

Unfortunately I had to fly to Phoenix this week. I just take normal precautions to not get sick. The older I get the less I think we have any control over our mortality


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Wash your hands and don't touch your face without doing so

 

[SA_Steve]

Some are saying the new death rate is over 20%, still not as bad as MERS at 36%.
No hope for a vaccine, and certainly not a timely one, but there is optimism over a treatment to prevent the fatal pneumonia that the virus morphs into.

In truth, too early to tell the impact, or even get a handle on the severity of the threat.

But factories world wide are already shutting down due to the China suppliers being closed and highly tuned just-in-time processes.

 

[kbaxter60]

Wash your hands and don't touch your face without doing so

It sounds so simple. Yet, yesterday they reported that China had 1,700 medical workers who were infected.
If the meds community can't keep themselves safe, how bad are things in China, anyway???
I'm sure that we are WAY better here in the States.

 

[O.S.O.K. 1961]

I've been watching this. Lots of sensational reports but it's warranted I think. Not in the MSM, but in alternative media. The MSM is all but ignoring this which is astounding. This could very easily become a world-wide pandemic - its already spreading - last report is we had 7 cases here in the states. That doesn't sound like many but think of the likelihood that more cases come from those... it only takes a few to get things rolling. The authorities can quarantine and try to round up everyone that came in contact with the infected people but think about that... like what if they went to an event - like a concert or sporting event - think of the number of contacts!

This could become very very bad over here - it's already a disaster in China. 20% kill rate.

Oh, on another note - did ya'll see that Dean Koontz wrote a book about this in 1981? In the book, the virus originates in Chinese bio weapons labs - in Woohan! He called the virus Woohan 400. So eerily close to reality.

 

[toddnjoyce]

It sounds so simple. Yet, yesterday they reported that China had 1,700 medical workers who were infected.
If the meds community can't keep themselves safe, how bad are things in China, anyway???
I'm sure that we are WAY better here in the States.

3rd World communist dictatorship gets you that.

A grand total of four people outside China have died due to this virus. At least one of those four was a Chinese tourist in France, who today, was the first death outside of Asia.

The 2+% mortality rate is almost entirely Chinese people.

If you take the 700 or so cases outside of China confirmed and the four deaths, that’s a mort rate of roughly 0.5% today.

This is where numbers get skewy in telling a story; if you’re a one in a million in China there’s more than a 1300 of you, whereas in the US, there’s about 330 of you. That’s scale.

But rate, which is a normalized for scale, shouldn’t change if all things are equal. In this case, right now, something isn’t equal.

 

[Younggun]

I've been watching this. Lots of sensational reports but it's warranted I think. Not in the MSM, but in alternative media. The MSM is all but ignoring this which is astounding. This could very easily become a world-wide pandemic - its already spreading - last report is we had 7 cases here in the states. That doesn't sound like many but think of the likelihood that more cases come from those... it only takes a few to get things rolling. The authorities can quarantine and try to round up everyone that came in contact with the infected people but think about that... like what if they went to an event - like a concert or sporting event - think of the number of contacts!

This could become very very bad over here - it's already a disaster in China. 20% kill rate.

Oh, on another note - did ya'll see that Dean Koontz wrote a book about this in 1981? In the book, the virus originates in Chinese bio weapons labs - in Woohan! He called the virus Woohan 400. So eerily close to reality.

Alternative media sources need clicks too.


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[Dad_Roman]

Alternative media sources need clicks too.

What are your preferred favorites?

 

[O.S.O.K. 1961]

younggun - so true - I've have unsubscribed to many channels that are just click bait - everything is a war, teotwawki, etc...

 

[Younggun]

What are your preferred favorites?

Not any really. I tend to not trust much. The more outrageous the claim, the less I believe.

If this virus is a serious threat, there are people being paid to deal with it. If they are doing a good job it’s not a serious threat to me. Until there is a mass outbreak in the US I won’t be concerned and won’t worry about outlets telling me we are all gonna die (or a large portion of us are gonna get real sick).

My faith in media is pretty low. Some stuff I do watch but it’s mostly in the political realm. For this I just see China falling apart (not literally) and everyone else doing ok. Tells me China is reaping the benefits of a communist government.


Just my opinion. Not worth any more than you paid for it.


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[O.S.O.K. 1961]

I do remember back when SARS was going on - plenty of fear about that too - and it never affected us. Ebola - same thing. So, while I am concerned and sad for those affected, I am not going to worry about this becoming a problem here until I see some reason to.

The thing is, there are many unknown aspects of this - I've seen recent reports that you can actually contract this again - after being infected once and surviving and that the survival % the second time is much lower - but I haven't seen verification of this and it doesn't follow normal viral parameters... but it this virus is mutating at a high rate, I could believe it. After all, normal flu viruses morph from year to year to the point that getting a flu shot is pointless IMHO - because the inoculation is based on the previous year's rendition of the flu - from what I understand.