How many LTC folks are actively carrying around you?

[busykngt]

jrbfishn... I see we had the same thought process... ( kinda scary )
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What we need is more unemployed politicians.

 

[Byrd666]

I can't remember where I saw, heard, or read it but, I seem to recall, with heavy thinking, that it said something around 15 to 20 percent of persons licensed to carry concealed actually do so on a daily basis.

Seems like a major waste of time, money, and frustration to get something that important and not use it.

 

[Charlie]

Too many unknowns in the figures of who is or is not carrying on any specific day. All we can come up here on a forum is at best a SWAG!
Also who is licensed and who is not (and carrying).

 

[busykngt]

I can't remember where I saw, heard, or read it but, I seem to recall, with heavy thinking, that it said something around 15 to 20 percent of persons licensed to carry concealed actually do so on a daily basis.

Seems like a major waste of time, money, and frustration to get something that important and not use it.

So even if the larger value (20%) is used, that would be less than 2% of the general population that carry everyday. I suppose you could add to that, some number of folks that would happen to be carrying at the time and location of a given, random sampling. But even if that doubled the number, you'd probably still be hard pressed to get above 3% or so.

So yeah, for me, it appears there are perhaps two "take always". The first is, there are still not many of us'ins packin' heat in a general population sampling (apparently) and secondly, just because someone goes to the time, trouble and expense, doesn't mean they'll really exercise their Second Amendment right.
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What we need is more unemployed politicians.

 

[busykngt]

Thanks for the comments, guys... interesting discussion and insights!


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What we need is more unemployed politicians.

 

[dsgrey]

My immediate workgroup of IT geeks is 9 people and 4 of us have our LTC. Those 3 males and 1 female conceal carry outside of work and two of us always carry outside of work. The ratio is about the same with my immediate neighbors. Small sample but if it holds then maybe 10%-20% of the general population?

 

[navyguy]

the flaw in your math is the assumption that because you are taking out the under 21, over 80 and felons , it makes the percentage of those carrying higher. Fact is, out of those estimated 200 people in WalMart, the same percentage (maybe more in the case of felons) fall into this "can't carry" bucket. But they in fact are there and part of the people you are seeing. If you're going to gaze around the store and wonder how many are carrying, it seems to me it would be more accurate if you simply take the number that are legally licensed in the state as a percentage of the entire population, which was reported at just shy of 4% and then take a SWAG at how many of that 4% carry regularly. My SWAG is probably less than 25%. So, 200 people in the store, 4% have a LTC (8) and 25% of those are actually carrying (2). That's you and another dude or dudette.

 

[busykngt]

So navyguy, your swag leads you to believe just 1% of a very broad spectrum, cross-section of the population may actually be carrying at any given time (1 out of 100 folks)? I have no point to argue here: you may be right. I personally think that more than 25% of those licensed would be carrying but perhaps that's just wishful thinking on my part. The question concerning felons (et. al.), I don't believe is statically that significant one way or the other as it appears to influence the outcome by only about a half percent (assuming a million folks fall into that category - that is, can't be licensed for whatever reason).
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What we need is more unemployed politicians.

 

[navyguy]

I did say it is a SWAG We know it's not 1%~ and pretty sure it's not 50%. Just think about all of the women who flocked to CHL courses over the past 5 years or so. It's anecdotal, but my gut tells me a good deal of those ladies leave their AirWeight revolvers and micro pistols at home. My daughter got her license and never carried. Not once. My wife got her's and carried on and off for a year or so, then gave it up because all she felt comfortable with was purse carry which became evident was not a great option. With the fees going down sharply in Sept, and all of the terror we're seeing, I expect we'll see more people get their licenses.

Anyway, it's interesting to contemplate. I always look around and try to figure out who is carrying. Might be the guy looking in the ammo case at WalMart, or the guy who's also looking around trying to spot a bulge. You never know.

 

[Charlie]

We can argue until we turn blue, but it's meaningless unless we had someone check each person at the door, get a count of the people in that store, and ....... it would only apply to that one particular store at that point in time. Which means we don't know. I would venture to say that during hunting season (here in Kerr County) the number of folks carrying would jump up quite a bit in the HEB or Walmart (buying steaks, beer, etc. and carrying.)

 

[Charlie]

I did say it is a SWAG We know it's not 1%~ and pretty sure it's not 50%. Just think about all of the women who flocked to CHL courses over the past 5 years or so. It's anecdotal, but my gut tells me a good deal of those ladies leave their AirWeight revolvers and micro pistols at home. My daughter got her license and never carried. Not once. My wife got her's and carried on and off for a year or so, then gave it up because all she felt comfortable with was purse carry which became evident was not a great option. With the fees going down sharply in Sept, and all of the terror we're seeing, I expect we'll see more people get their licenses.

Anyway, it's interesting to contemplate. I always look around and try to figure out who is carrying. Might be the guy looking in the ammo case at WalMart, or the guy who's also looking around trying to spot a bulge. You never know.

Key word!

 

[busykngt]

navyguy: Well you're ahead of me; I've got no daughters AND I can't convince my wife to get her license.... rather lone, carry. (At least she doesn't give me any grief over me carrying!).

So it looks like the answer falls somewhere between a low of maybe 1% and the maximum of 7% (at least as far as "legal" carry is concerned). And for it to be reduced down into the 2, 3 or 4% range, depends on what your swag is, concerning what percentage of those folks who are licensed but yet, don't carry.
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What we need is more unemployed politicians.

 

[busykngt]

One last thought. Again, primarily concerning TEXAS. Has anybody ever read (from DPS website or other credible site), what percentage of licensed folks DON'T renew their license? I looked for this on the DPS website but didn't find any stats on it.

I was thinking that *might* serve to provide some insight as to how many or what percentage of folks don't tend to carry (even after they went to the trouble to get it).... drawing a rough parallel between the two.
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What we need is more unemployed politicians.

 

[majormadmax]

So yeah, for me, it appears there are perhaps two "take always". The first is, there are still not many of us'ins packin' heat in a general population sampling (apparently) and secondly, just because someone goes to the time, trouble and expense, doesn't mean they'll really exercise their Second Amendment right.

I thought it was an interesting discussion but given all the unknown variables all we can do do a "best guess" which I believe would be in the 3-4 percentile of the general population carrying at any given time and/or place.

But I wholeheartedly agree that far too few exercise their 2A rights, but that's their right as well!

The bottom line for me is that while I always hope that if I am ever in such a threatening situation there are many law-abiding citizens carrying around that would assist just as I would if the roles were reversed (the same goes for police officers), the truth is you cannot rely on anyone (police or otherwise) coming to your aid so you had better be prepared to protect yourself, your loved ones, property and anyone or thing you feel the need to to the best of your ability without any assistance.

 

[kotetu]

http://crimeresearch.org/2016/07/ne...ear-saw-largest-increase-ever-number-permits/

1,150,754 out of ~18 million adults, so a bit more than 1:16 adults are carrying. Spread is reported in the chron article below, linked to the second site with a mapping of public data (licensees per county).

http://www.chron.com/houston/article/The-Texas-counties-with-the-most-gun-licenses-per-7464669.php

https://public.tableau.com/views/Te...:loadOrderID=0&:display_count=yes&:showTabs=y

 

[TheDan]

three

 

[Tcruse]

I suspect that the actual number will vary greatly based on the current "fear" of terrorism, location (like Austin vs Denton), and economic level of location. There are some people that would get LTC and carry if the cost was less. So, maybe the recent fee reduction will show an increase in the numbers. Certainly, the ISIS activities in the UK will have an affect. In places like Austin and Houston, where gun owners are always treated by the press as "negative" the levels will be much lower.

 

[majormadmax]

http://crimeresearch.org/2016/07/ne...ear-saw-largest-increase-ever-number-permits/

1,150,754 out of ~18 million adults, so a bit more than 1:16 adults are carrying. Spread is reported in the chron article below, linked to the second site with a mapping of public data (licensees per county).

http://www.chron.com/houston/article/The-Texas-counties-with-the-most-gun-licenses-per-7464669.php

https://public.tableau.com/views/Te...:loadOrderID=0&:display_count=yes&:showTabs=y

Licenses and people actually carrying are not the same. I seriously doubt that 1:16 people in public are armed, I still believe the percentages to be closer to 3-4% at best...

 

[busykngt]

I still believe the percentages to be closer to 3-4% at best...

That's my belief too. I say "belief" simply because of all the different variables involved (especially those that are unknown). When using this kind of statistical data approach, it become necessary to make some subjective judgements and invariably folks are going to put different emphasis on different aspects of any given scenario.

Given the very general scenario I attempted to outline in the beginning of this thread and considering the raw data adjustments I made (and the reasoning for them), my math led me to a 3 to 4% number (at best, as m3 said).

Undoubtedly arguments could be made that would lead to a lower (...or higher) number, again, depending on the emphasis placed on any given aspect of the variables being considered. Even the upper mathematical limit of licensed carriers to the general population can be exceeded if a venue is define which lends itself to such a conclusion - like the church attendance one poster mentioned. But clearly, that venue/scenario is no longer representative of the general population.

Personally, I could possibly buy into the belief the number may be lower than 3-4% for a broad range of common activities and gatherings where LTC is allowed. However for my own knowledge and intent of this thread, whether the "actual" number (which can never be known with a high degree of certainty) is slightly lower (or higher) equips me with the knowledge I was seeking. That is, there are darn few folks in a hundred who are likely carrying around you. And as m3 pointed out earlier, perhaps even fewer who would be willing to 'get involved' should the need arise.
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What we need is more unemployed politicians.

 

[kotetu]

true, true, I guess I should have said 1:16 or ~6:100 adults are licensed to carry. Distribution varies across the state, but in general you find license holders everywhere. As to whether they choose to carry on any given day, that's unknown.

Since we don't know, we should just decide that wherever we go we should raise the average.