The State of the HPA

[SidewaysTA]

Yep^

Pretty clear cut to me.

 

[Brains]

OT Warning

In Texas, purchases, specifically the mechanisms of purchase for new cars, are highly regulated. Look at how Texas has treated Tesla.

The "requirement" to purchase through a dealer network is indeed regulated. I don't need to bother with any of that mess if I never intend to operate it on a public roadway.

To go back to the original post that started this diversion, there is VERY little comparison to be made to the acquisition of NFA items.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[benenglish]

To go back to the original post that started this diversion, there is VERY little comparison to be made to the acquisition of NFA items.

On that, we agree.

 

[SC-Texas]

Ya, the gun trust lawyers are hurting too, especially after the hit from 41F, and now the HPA...

Lack of intelligence shows brightly. Still hasnt identified the points.

Whatever. I have to go deliver those trusts that savage says im not doing anymore.



Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

 

[Mowingmaniac 24/7]

If the HPA passes, I see a lot of new manufacturers producing high quality suppressors for significantly less cost to the consumer.

As Savage pointed out some posts back, and I paraphrase, the cost to produce these items isn't terribly difficult or the material rare.

Up to now, the current suppressor manufacturers have had a sellers market with concomitant pricing to the consumer. In other words the consumer was, to a certain extent, gouged. But that's the free enterprise system, i.e., whatever the market will bear, but certainly the cost for a suppressor is, I hope soon to be 'was', way over the top of what it cost to produce these items.

If again, HPA passes, I'm sure they'll be an upsurge in sales with current inventory remaining at or higher pricing, but once all the potentially new manufacturers come on board the costs will plummet.

If the HPA passes the day of price reckoning is coming.

 

[Younggun]

I think the access cost associated with regulation also had a 2 fold effect on consumer costs.

1 being the amount of extra record keeping associated with manufacturing.

2, it created a situation where the investment was already going to be a certain amount of time and money ($200+6 month to a year wait). Because of this the manufacturers are pushed to get any edge they can over the competition and the slightest flaws (a QD mount that might wear out a little faster) will kill sales. This means manufacturers will spend much more on R&D to make sure they are 1db quieter, or .2oz lighter, maybe 1/2" shorter than the competition. They maybe able to shave $100 from the price tag by reducing R&D, but then they loose sales because someone making the investment will spend a little more to invest in the best.


By removing the gov imposed cost of time and money it will allow manufactures to submit lower cost options with reduced R&D costs for those who are willing to take a slightly louder/heavier/longer suppressor at a lower price.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Mowingmaniac 24/7]

YG,

How much knowledge do you have regarding suppressors made in or at least sold in say, Scandinavian countries?

Are they lower in quality than say the best made suppressors here in the States?

Or equal in quality and selling for far, far less as in roughly speaking $150.00 or so.

 

[TheDan]

By removing the gov imposed cost of time and money it will allow manufactures to submit lower cost options with reduced R&D costs for those who are willing to take a slightly louder/heavier/longer suppressor at a lower price.

Yep... If it wasn't such a hassle to manufacture them, you'd see advanced designs for bleeding edge manufacturing techniques free for download.

...or you could build one that is 95% as effective as whatever the best on the market is for $50.

 

[benenglish]

YG,

How much knowledge do you have regarding suppressors made in or at least sold in say, Scandinavian countries?

Are they lower in quality than say the best made suppressors here in the States?

Or equal in quality and selling for far, far less as in roughly speaking $150.00 or so.

If I may...

Here's the first web site that pops up on Google for a Finnish suppressor manufacturer. Someone more knowledgeable than me would have to look at the specs and tell me if they are comparable to our products.

http://www.jahtivaruste.fi/en/index.html

Next, here's a 1992 study on the state of the art of Finnish suppressors that refers to their cost-effectiveness as being far superior to either hearing protectors (though still recommended) or advanced range design.

http://guns.connect.fi/rs/suppress.html

Interestingly, if you use their numbers for the potential lowered unit cost of suppressors (assuming universal adoption) and run it through various converters for currency and inflation (depending strongly on which converters you choose), their numbers indicate that suppressors today should typically run between $70 and $110.

Basically, they're supporting a conclusion that the cost of ranges, on a per-patron basis, falls through the floor if every firearm used on the range is suppressed. The two big expenditures that suppressors take out of the equation are: (1) There will never be a need to move due to encroachment, and (2) elaborate noise-reduction structures are not required.

Well, you asked so I thought I'd google around a little. I'm dangerous when I have time on my hands.

 

[Mowingmaniac 24/7]

benenglish,

Thanks - great stuff.

I too would like to know how they compare in overall quality to our (in some instances) $800.00 and up for one U.S. suppressor.

Methinks, we consumers will be aghast once all the foreign made suppressor particulars are known, at what the market has been willing to bear regarding the cost of suppressors.

We might discover we've been hosed..

 

[Younggun]

benenglish,

Thanks - great stuff.

I too would like to know how they compare in overall quality to our (in some instances) $800.00 and up for one U.S. suppressor.

Methinks, we consumers will be aghast once all the foreign made suppressor particulars are known, at what the market has been willing to bear regarding the cost of suppressors.

We might discover we've been hosed..

I think you are taking an oversimplified look at the market at what drives cost.

I'm not saying that the nature of the market has allowed a larger profit margin, but I also know that when you can sell a product without government hoops you can reach a much broader customer base. This means R&D costs will have less impact on final price.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[benenglish]

...when you can sell a product without government hoops you can reach a much broader customer base.

I find that this situation has arisen in several European countries due (OK, it's just my theory.) to cultural differences. In many places, it's considered downright rude to make disturbingly loud noises by firing hunting rifles in the field without moderators.

 

[boomgoesthedynamite]

It would be nice to see some universally adopted things like tubes. Image getting a standard aluminum or titanium tube, and then purchasing baffles and end caps. It seems like the pieces themselves would be pretty cheap. I think you can buy a flashlight and freeze plugs for about $60, so it would seem that a company could dump out baffles by the truckload for cheap.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

 

[A & P]

I've got more cans to buy, but it won't happen until wait times are reduced regardless of what the industry is dealing with right now.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Hey! Let me help you with that!

Seriously, though (actually, that was a serious offer), I think wait times ARE already reduced. Realize that "wait times" are a reflection of past waits, not what's coming. We just got a 5/16 submission in. Wow. 9 months. However, as Sean said, our sales have been fairly anemic since 41F. in fact, we did a lot (for us) in July, NONE in August or September, a few in October through December, and just a few this calendar year so far too. We are a SilencerCo SPEQ dealer (special discounts) so we get an extra boost of LE/Mil/First Responder types and even with that it's been extremely slow.

I think the 41F obviously boosted sales in July and that's why it was so slow after July. As for HPA, that's a joke. I doubt it will ever go through. And not because it's dumb. When was the last time the government was inclined to give up money and/or power or control? Trump can't sign what isn't on his desk. Now, if Obama was in office, he'd just "get around the Constitution (or in favor of it in this case)" with his "phone and pen" and whip together an executive order. It seems, too, that with the casualness that the ATF can interpret Sig stabilizing braces as they relate to SBRs, they might be able to do something like that to take silencers off the NFA...but they won't. Some people got excited because the HPA was "in committee", but that's where most bills die so don't get too excited.

As for my theory on the wait times, though, realize that BECAUSE so many people are waiting for HPA there isn't a pile of Form 4s. There are from July, but those are getting worked on. There isn't much of anything after July so if you bought your can from me today, it might be approved in 4-5 months! Maybe. The fastest I've seen an approval was applied November 30 2015 and back in my hands March 30 2016...exactly 4 months later. The longest has been these recent 9 month waits. I heard it was 12 months a few years ago before we were in business.

Also, if we did your application today and the HPA was approved next month, it'd just cancel the process and obviate the $200 tax payment. So, really, all you did was a little extra paperwork for nothing. The other interesting push (from the silencer companies, of course) is to buy your can today so you have it reserved! If the HPA magically went through tomorrow, the inventories might get wiped out, prices might jump, Gunbroker would be flooded with inflated cans (think AR scare) and nothing would be available. So by buying today you: guarantee your can, guarantee you have it within 8 months (probably more like 4 is my theory), and if HPA goes through, you're just out the same money net with the cancelled stamp. If HPA doesn't go through, then you have your can soon enough anyway.

It reminds me of the people who missed the dip in the stock market in (pick your year) and are "waiting for the market to come back down" which never does. They miss out on the 100-200% gain in the following few years (think 1999, 2008, etc). So my advice would be to not wait. You don't gain much of anything by waiting. The only cost of not waiting is tying up $200 in the meantime (which you might have to pay regardless if HPA doesn't go) and about $10-$20 for fingerprints. Incidentally, we just bought one of Silencer Shop's (fellow Forum Sponsor apparently) $5000 machines for digital fingerprints. Should be here soon so they tell us. And we are a Silencer Shop "Powered By" dealer so if you already have your prints on file, we can do the deal quickly and easily. If you qualify for SilencerCo's SPEQ program, well, you just can't beat our prices on that then. Regardless of who you use, I just thought I'd reflect on why not to wait and my opinion of the HPA progress from a logical point of view, not necessarily as a retailer/sponsor trying to sell product.

 

[Younggun]

I hear what your saying and have considered the gamble associated with the right time to jump back in.

Had a dealer do something that I though was pretty gracious and decided to give them my next purchase a while back.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[STXdevilsquid]

I like the titanium stuff, and am looking at going there next, don't think those will get any cheaper. There will always be cheap and quality. Quality will always cost more, lots of people will always buy cheap. I don't understand why every one you buy takes the same time, why can't they just look at a dude and see the other items or items in passed and stamp it?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[sdismukes]

Just got my stamp in from a 5/4 purchase. The cans are so ridiculously priced it'll be a long time before I buy a third one (this stamp is for the second). 4-5 months is still a ridiculously long time for the approval process. I seriously imagine ATF worker bees sitting around all day sipping coffee, and process 1 approval to say they got something done.

Had a discussion with my better half this morning on the HPA. She even acted a little upset they were thinking of taking them off the NFA. No real reason why (criminals can get them ... Honey, criminals use oil filters and pillows!). So there is an uphill battle with these just because, as she said, there was a reason in the past to regulate them, so maybe that reason is still valid. Then you have Hollyweird and the super-silent full auto weapons and people think that's what they do ... <sigh>

 

[A & P]

If the HPA passes, I see a lot of new manufacturers producing high quality suppressors for significantly less cost to the consumer.

As Savage pointed out some posts back, and I paraphrase, the cost to produce these items isn't terribly difficult or the material rare.

Up to now, the current suppressor manufacturers have had a sellers market with concomitant pricing to the consumer. In other words the consumer was, to a certain extent, gouged. But that's the free enterprise system, i.e., whatever the market will bear, but certainly the cost for a suppressor is, I hope soon to be 'was', way over the top of what it cost to produce these items.

If again, HPA passes, I'm sure they'll be an upsurge in sales with current inventory remaining at or higher pricing, but once all the potentially new manufacturers come on board the costs will plummet.

If the HPA passes the day of price reckoning is coming.

I don't disagree with any of this. I think some has to do with the scale, though. I don't know how much it costs to build a can, honestly. Some people try to point to the cost of a drill press and a maglite, but that's like trying to have a logical debate with a liberal. It's just pointless. Some companies use more exotic material. Some spend more time on R&D. Some do marketing and packaging better. If you don't think that matters, check the brand of shoes you're wearing. Probably don't cost 10% of what you paid to make...no matter what brand. And if you saw anyone on TV wearing those shoes, then the number drops to 5%. Every time you shoot a competition "sponsored by" Nightforce or Gemtech or AAC or whatever, you're increasing the price of their product. Every time someone on this forum with "Forum Sponsor" (including myself) posts something, realize we paid money that obviously comes from the revenue generated from sales. Everyone says they understand all of this, but then they start talking about how "it's just bar stock...can't cost that much!...gouging..." They also have R & D and, oh ya, profit.

But where the real cost is, in my opinion, is the Ferrari effect. Why is a Ferrari $300k? because they don't sell that many. Sure, they're better, faster, or whatever. But if they sold 10x as many, they'd have economies of scale. So, if HPA passes, I DO expect prices to come down. Some of that will be for competition sake while others will be from scaleable savings. If SiCo sold 10x as many cans, I'm sure they'd come down...rather than lay people off. Oddly enough, with this glut of cans the manfs are sitting on right now, there might be a fire sale also. That'll be a temporary sale on cans, not a long term condition.

Like with most hardware, we dealers are only making 10-15% typically. If you pay with a credit card that charges us 3%, that's 30% of our income...or 30% of our gross paycheck to look at it one way. I'm not sure what kind of margins our distributors are making (SilencerShop, Sports South, Lipseys, etc) but I'd guess it wasn't more than 10% either. Surely John Q Public doesn't think we're gouging with a 10% margin. So if that's the case, on a $800 can, the can company might be making $550-$600? On a 22LR $200 retail can (slightly higher margins for us), maybe they make $100? Totally guessing here. That means the first 100 high dollar cans they sell just pays for the engineer or designer. The next 50 cans pays for the girl who boxes them up. The next 50 for the person who answers the phone. The next 200 for that years rent or building expense. The next 100 might be for liability insurance(?). A few thousand cans to pay for the line workers or product handlers. Several hundred cans per CNC machine I'm guessing. A hundred or so cans for some event sponsorship... You get the idea. Oh, and the owner of the company did it to make a living (or more), so another few hundred cans to make it worth his risk.

Not sure where that puts them in terms of gouging or profitability, but it's just a slightly different way to look at it than the cost of bar stock. Bottles of water are easy to make and not exactly a rare commodity, but people still pay $1.50 for them everyday. Despite the easy of manufacturing and the commonality of them, prices haven't dropped much on bottled water either.

 

[A & P]

I don't understand why every one you buy takes the same time, why can't they just look at a dude and see the other items or items in passed and stamp it?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think this was actually part of the 41P originally. I remember hearing something like "if you had a can approved in the last 2 years, you just fill out an affidavit and say "this is me, nothing has changed" and reference the SN of the other item." Like with your logic, they say "well, this guy is the same guy", same trust, same prints, etc. so it was supposed to either speed it up or they'd at least not make you send in photos/prints/trust docs each time. I guess it didn't make it because we are still sending in a complete packet. In fact, this is how stupid it is:

What's the point of the fingerprints? Because fingerprints don't change overtime and we can use them to identify you now as well as later.

So why do we have to mail them in for each can? If I buy one today and one next week, why do you need my prints twice? Hell, my hair hasn't even grown out enough for a new picture. FFLs are trusted to check people's identities when buying firearms. Why can't we just check the box when buying an NFA item? Fill out the paperwork, show me your id, ...done.

The process is kind of ridiculous. Now, I know I'll get flamed for this, but it did kind of defy logic that if you had a trust, you didn't have to have all the trustees do a 4473 or otherwise get checked but an individual had to do fingerprints and photos. So, to be fair, it was logical for 41F. Of course, the other logic would be that neither the individual nor the trust/trustees should have to do it. They could just be checked during the 4473 transfer just like the trustees were doing.

Of course, these are the same people who say 18 year olds can have handguns and even buy them from private people, but they cannot come in my store and buy one or get a CHL. Same people who say 18 can't buy 9mm ammo because it's handgun ammo...unless they say "I have a Tavor in 9mm and need ammo for it" and then I can sell them the 9mm "rifle ammo".

Politicians.

 

[Mowingmaniac 24/7]

A & P,

Yes, your analysis sounds good, but I doubt it being completely accurate.

The domestic suppressor market has had not quite a monopoly on the can market, but they've had something close to it.

If HPA passes, that status will disappear and can manufacturers will have to compete with an enormous amount of competitors who aren't necessarily inferior, who're possibly just as good, and just as possiibly even superior...but who'll enter the market with vastly lower costs to the consumer.

Competition is part of the free enterprise system.

Those who charged an arm and a leg for the suppressor enthusiast, insisting their product was worth it, aren't going to be loyal to manufacturers who gouged them..and why should they?

Many countries have good, if not great quality suppressors for relatively low cost, function well, but not us. Oh no, we pay through the nose, suckers that we are and while we're at it, we're supposed to act grateful. My ass.

If HPA passes - suppressor companies, your days of outlandish pricing is numbered..

What to do to remain in business if you're a one time gouger?

Bring down the cost to the consumer to the gun enthusiast.

Instead of an outlandish margin, you'll still make money..just not bending over the everyday shooter..