Ukraine invasion

[cycleguy2300]

Some of you watch too many movies if you think it’s likely there will be a coup against Putin.

Putin's style of governance, pitting parts of the government against each other helps them destroy each other when they sense one is getting to be a threat because if that person gained the top job, they would clean house... it keeps a coup at bay. But eventually one of the ministers will go for it after some networking. I do think it is a matter of time.

A coup is possible, but likely right now. As the war continues to go poorly for them and he can no longer hide it from the public, I think he will be removed from power. I could easily see him gone by the end of the year if Ukraine's anticipated offense is anywhere near as successful as last year's was. Could we see Mariupol or Crimea return to Ukraine and Putin's demise? We can only hope.

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[General Zod]

We can only hope.

Well, most of us anyway.

 

[Havok1]

Putin's style of governance, pitting parts of the government against each other helps them destroy each other when they sense one is getting to be a threat because if that person gained the top job, they would clean house... it keeps a coup at bay. But eventually one of the ministers will go for it after some networking. I do think it is a matter of time.

A coup is possible, but likely right now. As the war continues to go poorly for them and he can no longer hide it from the public, I think he will be removed from power. I could easily see him gone by the end of the year if Ukraine's anticipated offense is anywhere near as successful as last year's was. Could we see Mariupol or Crimea return to Ukraine and Putin's demise? We can only hope.

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in my opinion, the desire for a coup here does not mean there is a desire for one there. People have been predicting that Putins life was about to come to an end for one reason or another since the start of this invasion, not because there was really any reason to think it was, but because they hoped it was. If he were to die 10 years from now of some medical condition, I’m sure there would still be a handful of people saying that he must have been killed and that their prediction back in 2022 that he would be assassinated because of the invasion was correct. I wonder how many people around the world were making similar predictions after the iraq invasion in 2003.

Another thing is, if there actually were a coup, I wonder what the chances are that putins replacement would be someone who would withdraw from ukraine vs ramping things up.

 

[Cool 'Horn Luke]

in my opinion, the desire for a coup here does not mean there is a desire for one there. People have been predicting that Putins life was about to come to an end for one reason or another since the start of this invasion, not because there was really any reason to think it was, but because they hoped it was. If he were to die 10 years from now of some medical condition, I’m sure there would still be a handful of people saying that he must have been killed and that their prediction back in 2022 that he would be assassinated because of the invasion was correct. I wonder how many people around the world were making similar predictions after the iraq invasion in 2003.

Another thing is, if there actually were a coup, I wonder what the chances are that putins replacement would be someone who would withdraw from ukraine vs ramping things up.

Body bags are a heck of a motivation to the masses.

 

[angel71rs]

Some of you watch too many movies if you think it’s likely there will be a coup against Putin.

Judging by how far he sits from his ministers at meetings, putler thinks it's likely there will be a coup.

 

[oldag]

I really don't expect a coup. Putin is ex-KGB after all.

Might be more folks falling out of windows, though.

 

[General Zod]

I really don't expect a coup. Putin is ex-KGB after all.

Might be more folks falling out of windows, though.

Eventually there will be someone younger and more clever. I don't expect Putin to die of old age...it's just a matter of how ruthless his replacement is.

 

[jrbfishn]

Pretty much.

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[Havok1]

Judging by how far he sits from his ministers at meetings, putler thinks it's likely there will be a coup.

Judging by the fact that they aren’t the only ones he sits at the other end of a long table, that probably has nothing to do with fear of a coup.

 

[Johnny Diamond]

What flavor of kool-aid do you drink?

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[candcallen]

Another thing is, if there actually were a coup, I wonder what the chances are that putins replacement would be someone who would withdraw from ukraine vs ramping things upup.

Let's use our critical thinking skills here. Why would there be a coup if everyone loved the way things were going in rusky land? No a coup would be in response to how bad things were going in rusky land.

 

[angel71rs]

Judging by the fact that they aren’t the only ones he sits at the other end of a long table, that probably has nothing to do with fear of a coup.

That just means he doesn't know from where the knife is coming, so he keeps everybody away.

 

[Havok1]

That just means he doesn't know from where the knife is coming, so he keeps everybody away.

Or maybe there is another reason for it. But go ahead and believe that he’s worried about Emmanuel Macron killing him if you’d like.

 

[cycleguy2300]

Another thing is, if there actually were a coup, I wonder what the chances are that putins replacement would be someone who would withdraw from ukraine vs ramping things up.

How would they ramp things up? Everything suggests russia is fully committed. Look at Bakhmut, rhey wouldn't have made small and mediums attacks over and over and over losing at least 20,000 by every estimate, they would have attacked with overwhelming force of they had it available. They have no ability to turn the screws, the threads are stripped.

Who ever takes over from putting assuming a mid war regime change would likely not continue or double down on a flagship policy of their deposed predecessor, I think if there is a new head of state, they will withdrawal from Ukraine, Crimea may be politically more difficult, but I suspect the Ukrainians will provide motivation...

We have Russians attacking Russian cities to free them from putins control, there is no way that could happen if Russians military wasn't stretched to the breaking point AND if they didn't think there was some chance of instigating a revolt, even if only locally.


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[Johnny Diamond]

Notice how long it takes havok to respond to irrefutable truth like that every time ?

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[candcallen]

Or maybe there is another reason for it. But go ahead and believe that he’s worried about Emmanuel Macron killing him if you’d like.

That's absolutely what he said.

Lol

 

[angel71rs]

Or maybe there is another reason for it. But go ahead and believe that he’s worried about Emmanuel Macron killing him if you’d like.

Well he could have severe BO, but I'm going to go with the obvious and say he is terrified of getting offed.

Macron, lol no, that wuss only recently stopped sucking putler's dick. More likely oligarchs that have lost billions or another thug that wants to replace him, just like the mafia.

 

[Havok1]

How would they ramp things up? Everything suggests russia is fully committed. Look at Bakhmut, rhey wouldn't have made small and mediums attacks over and over and over losing at least 20,000 by every estimate, they would have attacked with overwhelming force of they had it available. They have no ability to turn the screws, the threads are stripped.

Who ever takes over from putting assuming a mid war regime change would likely not continue or double down on a flagship policy of their deposed predecessor, I think if there is a new head of state, they will withdrawal from Ukraine, Crimea may be politically more difficult, but I suspect the Ukrainians will provide motivation...

We have Russians attacking Russian cities to free them from putins control, there is no way that could happen if Russians military wasn't stretched to the breaking point AND if they didn't think there was some chance of instigating a revolt, even if only locally.


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What is “everything”? maybe you’re right about who would replace him. No way to know for sure without it happening.

 

[cycleguy2300]

What is “everything”? maybe you’re right about who would replace him. No way to know for sure without it happening.

"EVERYTHING" refers to the set containing all reliable data.

EVERYTHING = {all reliable data}



I haven't seen anything suggesting russia has any significant reserves in fieldable equipment or man power. Their yearly headline show of force had a single tank from the 1940s which is laughable and would be unfathomable just two years ago. I'm not saying russia doesn't still have strength or the ability to fight, but I do think they are doing less with less as of late.

Maybe we'll get to see what a Russian coup looks like. Strongman leaders do not tend to survive failed wars...

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[Havok1]

"EVERYTHING" refers to the set containing all reliable data.

EVERYTHING = {all reliable data}



I haven't seen anything suggesting russia has any significant reserves in fieldable equipment or man power. Their yearly headline show of force had a single tank from the 1940s which is laughable and would be unfathomable just two years ago. I'm not saying russia doesn't still have strength or the ability to fight, but I do think they are doing less with less as of late.

Maybe we'll get to see what a Russian coup looks like. Strongman leaders do not tend to survive failed wars...

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How much of this “everything” had people convinced that Russias military rivaled ours just a year and a half ago? Who says the Russians view this as a failed war? Do you have any knowledge that whoever you think will replace Putin views this as a failed war?