...If there is no excess mortality due to covid, why did El Paso, Tarrant County, and other cities across the US need refrigerated trailers to store the bodies when they ran out of space in their morgues during the peaks?
Excess capacity procurement can be due to mortuary protocols or other factors such as funeral home restrictions, etc. whether that capacity is actually used is different than having the capacity on hand because it’s part of one of the various COVID stimulus spending bills. Remember, Uncle Sam put a hospital ship in NYC that went unused because the local pols decided it would be better (politically) to hide COVID patients in nursing home beds instead of being seen as accepting help from the then current federal administration. That decision alone most likely led to excess deaths.
Mass casualty events don’t automatically result in excess mortality over time. You can just as easily get excess mortality within existing system capacity spread over time.
Is it likely mortality rate has increased? Yes. Do we know the extent yet? Possibly early data indications, but we won’t have final data for a while.