Coronavirus Epidemic, Part 2

[DubiousDan]

Here is the only help I can give.

My grandfather believed the moon was a ball of fire just like the sun and that the moon landing was a hoax. Obviously you are arguing with people of a similar mindset and no minds will be changed.
I personally have seen the medical effects of this "hoax" and although it is not as fatal as smallpox or rabies, it is more fatal than flu and the morbidity is significant. A close friend that went the intubation route in December is still in a rehab facility. I don't think he will ever be the same.

LOL. I don't expect to change the minds of people who believe conspiracy theories but I know that there are lurkers who don't join in the discussion. I'm hoping that the more rational among them will pay more attention to the numbers and facts than to opinions.

 

[Brains]

LOL. I don't expect to change the minds of people who believe conspiracy theories but I know that there are lurkers who don't join in the discussion. I'm hoping that the more rational among them will pay more attention to the numbers and facts than to opinions.

The problem is identifying whose theories are conspiracy.
You know what solves that? Concrete, irrefutable, testable data. Which we don't have.

It's a lot like climate "science." These so-called experts keep calling everyone names for wanting proof, hell for even daring to ask for any hint they followed the well established scientific method to form even a postulate. Not able to provide anything at all like that, they indignantly trot out mere observations while screaming and pointing at pretty charts and graphs.

In both cases, there's some small components that can be agreed upon, but we just don't have enough information to know who is "right" or "wrong" when considering the sum total. Yet both sides want to win the argument that won't be won.

 

[Texas42]

If you don't mind I'd like to ask some questions.

In your experience are the covid patients who are dying, mostly dying from ARDS, VAP or a combination?

Are there other causes that are seen frequently?

Are most of the patients that are dying intubated?

Are the ones who are not intubated that are dying not intubated because they refuse intubation?

Thanks


Rotor, if you can give feedback please do.

I don’t take care of vented patients. (Closed ICU), but we try to avoid intubation with non-invasive ventilation such as bipap and high flow nasal cannula. There is a lot of reasons for that. Vented patient require more sedations, and most of these people have some level of right heart dysfunction, which doesn’t do well with a pressurized chest. These patients can stay on the vent a long time, and the longer they are sick with tubes and lines, the more likely they developed other complications (secondary bacterial infections/pneumonias, renal failure, acute heart failure ect).

Most people die of multi-organ failure, though I’ve seen at least a few die of inability to oxygenate.

Initially we tubed a lot less sick people, and most of them came off the vent. As we tubed sicker people, the mortality rates went up. They don’t publish our mortalities rates (at least not to me).

The majority of people that refuse intubation, honestly probably would have died within 90 days of being intubated.

I agree that calculating the actual (excess) deaths due to COVID19 is complicated. 2020 saw a bunch of societal changes which caused a difference in “normal” deaths. Lockdowns, social distancing, unemployment. I don’t know how you interpret the numbers. There has to be some ”educated guesswork,” which is going to have room for interpretations. I think we will argue about this for decades.

I haven’t seen much arterial thrombus, but honestly those are pretty rare, and almost always in people that have significant pro-thrombotic states (like genetic predisposition and cancer). I’ve seen a bunch of DVT’s and PE’s, but part of me feels like we are looking more actively.

 

[DubiousDan]

I don’t take care of vented patients. (Closed ICU), but we try to avoid intubation with non-invasive ventilation such as bipap and high flow nasal cannula. There is a lot of reasons for that. Vented patient require more sedations, and most of these people have some level of right heart dysfunction, which doesn’t do well with a pressurized chest. These patients can stay on the vent a long time, and the longer they are sick with tubes and lines, the more likely they developed other complications (secondary bacterial infections/pneumonias, renal failure, acute heart failure ect).

Most people die of multi-organ failure, though I’ve seen at least a few die of inability to oxygenate.

Initially we tubed a lot less sick people, and most of them came off the vent. As we tubed sicker people, the mortality rates went up. They don’t publish our mortalities rates (at least not to me).

The majority of people that refuse intubation, honestly probably would have died within 90 days of being intubated.

I agree that calculating the actual (excess) deaths due to COVID19 is complicated. 2020 saw a bunch of societal changes which caused a difference in “normal” deaths. Lockdowns, social distancing, unemployment. I don’t know how you interpret the numbers. There has to be some ”educated guesswork,” which is going to have room for interpretations. I think we will argue about this for decades.

I haven’t seen much arterial thrombus, but honestly those are pretty rare, and almost always in people that have significant pro-thrombotic states (like genetic predisposition and cancer). I’ve seen a bunch of DVT’s and PE’s, but part of me feels like we are looking more actively.

Thanks. That is pretty much what local friends are telling me. I was wondering if different fascilities had vastly differing protocols and results. I like to see what people who are actually taking care of these patients are experiencing. I don't feel I can depend on news reports or people on social media who heard from Aunt Minnie who read it somewhere on Facebook.

 

[DubiousDan]

I don’t take care of vented patients. (Closed ICU), but we try to avoid intubation with non-invasive ventilation such as bipap and high flow nasal cannula. There is a lot of reasons for that. Vented patient require more sedations, and most of these people have some level of right heart dysfunction, which doesn’t do well with a pressurized chest. These patients can stay on the vent a long time, and the longer they are sick with tubes and lines, the more likely they developed other complications (secondary bacterial infections/pneumonias, renal failure, acute heart failure ect).

Most people die of multi-organ failure, though I’ve seen at least a few die of inability to oxygenate.

Initially we tubed a lot less sick people, and most of them came off the vent. As we tubed sicker people, the mortality rates went up. They don’t publish our mortalities rates (at least not to me).

The majority of people that refuse intubation, honestly probably would have died within 90 days of being intubated.

I agree that calculating the actual (excess) deaths due to COVID19 is complicated. 2020 saw a bunch of societal changes which caused a difference in “normal” deaths. Lockdowns, social distancing, unemployment. I don’t know how you interpret the numbers. There has to be some ”educated guesswork,” which is going to have room for interpretations. I think we will argue about this for decades.

I haven’t seen much arterial thrombus, but honestly those are pretty rare, and almost always in people that have significant pro-thrombotic states (like genetic predisposition and cancer). I’ve seen a bunch of DVT’s and PE’s, but part of me feels like we are looking more actively.

The hospital where I was admitted to in October was very different from the one I had been admitted to in the past.

Hospital 1 is a teaching hospital.

They kept track of my input and output on each shift.

They also weighed me daily.

Hospital 2 is a private for profit hospital.

Did not track my I&O and they never weighed me even though on my first admission there it was for dehydration. Also on one night I had some blood tinged sputum and no one was interested in seeing it. I thought it odd that they would not want to document it.

 

[oldag]

Here is the only help I can give.

My grandfather believed the moon was a ball of fire just like the sun and that the moon landing was a hoax. Obviously you are arguing with people of a similar mindset and no minds will be changed.
I personally have seen the medical effects of this "hoax" and although it is not as fatal as smallpox or rabies, it is more fatal than flu and the morbidity is significant. A close friend that went the intubation route in December is still in a rehab facility. I don't think he will ever be the same.

You are not being accurate for 99% of the people on this forum.

Hoax? I don't think anyone is saying the virus is a hoax and therefore completely untrue.

A fair number of us are saying that it has been significantly exaggerated, and some of the response measures (masks which are not N95 medical masks) have been more for "feel good" than for effectiveness.

Too many holes and lack of scientific analytical methods for me to buy into the supposed extent of this virus.

 

[CyberWolf]

I like to see what people who are actually taking care of these patients are experiencing. I don't feel I can depend on news reports or people on social media who heard from Aunt Minnie who read it somewhere on Facebook.

Nobody gets a free pass on competency just because of their day-job - in other words, just because someone has an MD and treating patients doesn't automatically make them correct or establish the validity of their judgement.

One side effect of all this for me has been to highlight that every profession has its idiots - and just how many intellectual lightweights with little-to-no spiritual fortitude currently infest the medical community at-large...

Case in point: when my wife had covid last year (including complete loss of taste/smell, confirmed by multiple tests), I had a thoroughly unproductive argument with her Dr. over treatment. The issue? His treatment plan was to sit home, drink water, and wait it out. No other treatment option whatsoever was on the table...

When I asked about alternative treatments such as HCQ, etc., he immediately went into a lecture about how utterly dangerous HCQ usage was, and I shouldn't take any stock in what President Trump had said (automatically assuming that was why I had asked, which it wasn't). No logical argument was possible - he was fully unreceptive and just tried talking faster and loading up the medical jargon, becoming continuously more agitated as he failed to confuse and I asked more questions designed to highlight the incongruity of his statements (how dare I not respect his degree and incredibly superior intellect!).

Conversation pretty much ended with me calling him a gullible and spineless coward who's politics and hubris was destroying the public's faith in the Med community, and was in violation of his Hippocratic oath (with specific example).

btw - not being a scared little bitch, I took care of her while sick, even slept in same bed....still here...

 

[jrbfishn]

I know you'll probably say it's fake but these are the best numbers I can find. When the CDC releases the total for 2020 I'll let you know.

US deaths in 2020 top 3 million

You'll note that the CDC numbers for 2020 only go through Sept. 2020 and at that time the total was already over 3,000,000. This number may be Sept. 2019 to Sept. 2020.

State and National Provisional Counts

This is the totals for 2019. I couldn't post a link that goes directly to this so I did a screen cap.

View attachment 247601

Thank you! Finally some numbers that mean at least something.
I agree, covid can be a killer. But at least half could have and should have been prevented.
At first glance, they do support at least some of what you and the articles claim.
But the numbers in the article you linked to don't jive with the chart.

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[SA_Steve]

 

[DubiousDan]

Thank you! Finally some numbers that mean at least something.
I agree, covid can be a killer. But at least half could have and should have been prevented.
At first glance, they do support at least some of what you and the articles claim.
But the numbers in the article you linked to don't jive with the chart.

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Once I under stood what you meant by base numbers it just took a few minutes. If you're talking about the chart I just posted a screen cap of, that chart shows the numbers for 2019 while the link shows the numbers up to Sept 2020.

 

[jrbfishn]

You can go to the site on a computer and see a lot more.
The 2020 chart is kind of disingenuous because shows a running 12 months instead of year to date. Go to the deaths by month for each year and look at 2019 vs 2020. The total deaths by state had started to tapper off until the worst of the lock downs took effect and then jumped. Especially in the locals with the strictest ones.
Given those numbers, the estimated total for 2020 and excess deaths of 260,000, 3.1-3.2 million total dead would be about right. But the total with their total covid count of over 500,000 would have to be over 3.4 million.
Makes you wonder what happened to the other 250,000?????
It comes closer but something still doesn't seem to be adding up to the narrative.
Totals by cause of death would really clarify what exactly is going on. How many died because of covid and those that died with covid is the question that really needs to be answered.
But, bottom line, assuming at least half of the dead could have been prevented, 260,000 excess deaths would put the total dead about where it seems to be at around 3.5 million.
That is assuming the CDC isn't using creative accounting. The way this whole thing has been handled at the state and fed level, I would not bet either way.

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[jrbfishn]

Once I under stood what you meant by base numbers it just took a few minutes. If you're talking about the chart I just posted a screen cap of, that chart shows the numbers for 2019 while the link shows the numbers up to Sept 2020.

All I was trying to get through to you that all the articles posted, not just yours, needed those numbers as a base. Without them as a base for any percentages either way were just numbers with no basis in fact and worthless except to scare people.
Which seems to be part of their goal.

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[Texas45]

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[CyberWolf]

Just ran across this, had to post a link...

Damn good article, worth the time to read:

Weaponising Midwits in the COVID-19 War on Civil Society

The United States of America is a deeply divided society, as basically any observer can tell. It’s an understatement to say that we have essentially no social cohesion left. Decades of preten…

neociceroniantimes.wordpress.com

 

[gll]

Just ran across this, had to post a link...

Damn good article, worth the time to read:

Weaponising Midwits in the COVID-19 War on Civil Society

The United States of America is a deeply divided society, as basically any observer can tell. It’s an understatement to say that we have essentially no social cohesion left. Decades of preten…

neociceroniantimes.wordpress.com

So, is midwit just the new PC term for those who used to be called half-wit, or are midwits supposed to fall somewhere between half and full? Asking for a half-wit who is looking for an upgrade...

 

[Dougw1515]

Just ran across this, had to post a link...

Damn good article, worth the time to read:

Weaponising Midwits in the COVID-19 War on Civil Society

The United States of America is a deeply divided society, as basically any observer can tell. It’s an understatement to say that we have essentially no social cohesion left. Decades of preten…

neociceroniantimes.wordpress.com

I'm about up to here with folks defining the problem - again. Give me a solution I can get behind. The problem has been until I'm

 

[jrbfishn]

Just ran across this, had to post a link...

Damn good article, worth the time to read:

Weaponising Midwits in the COVID-19 War on Civil Society

The United States of America is a deeply divided society, as basically any observer can tell. It’s an understatement to say that we have essentially no social cohesion left. Decades of preten…

neociceroniantimes.wordpress.com

Just an article using very large and official sounding words to say that some otherwise smart people can be very gullible.
Probably by some over educated midwit that doesn't know what the word gullible is.

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[CyberWolf]

Just an article using very large and official sounding words to say that some otherwise smart people can be very gullible.
Probably by some over educated midwit that doesn't know what the word gullible is.

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Sure, not saying it wasn't a somewhat "wordy" article; but one of the main things that stood out for me (and directly aligned with personal observations) was in how he's describing the effects at-scale in a way that I'm not seeing much discussion around (in general):

"As such, the essence of midwittery is not so much based on level of intelligence as it is the willingness to commit oneself to believing oftentimes false propositions based on progressive psychological and/or ideological convenience.In most uses, we’re talking about people on the Left who believe obvious nonsense and who should really know better, but don’t because of ideological blinders that force them to accede to patently false premises. They’re “midwits” because, regardless of actual cognitive ability, they act like people who aren’t smart enough to think beyond the narrative they’re fed. As such, they put tremendous stock in what officially designated “experts” say, even when those experts are obviously wrong.
What makes midwits so dangerous is their willingness to believe propaganda and then enforce the aims of that propaganda upon everybody else, using their unwavering self-assurance as ipso facto moral justification."

I just liked the way it was called out and described...

So, is midwit just the new PC term for those who used to be called half-wit, or are midwits supposed to fall somewhere between half and full? Asking for a half-wit who is looking for an upgrade...

This is something different IMHO, and beyond what I can recall ever being the case throughout my life, until very recently.

 

[Texas45]

I'm about up to here with folks defining the problem - again. Give me a solution I can get behind. The problem has been until I'm

Get on with life, quit being scared we’re all gonna die.
Now there is a solution I can get behind


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[Dougw1515]

Get on with life, quit being scared we’re all gonna die.
Now there is a solution I can get behind


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Been there... doing that!!!! And and have been since the beginning.