Coronavirus Epidemic, Part 2

[DubiousDan]

There was a guy on social media, who was going into all those overloaded, packed hospitals and got live video of....wait for it....crickets. Each time, security threw him out, but not before the empty waiting rooms were seen. Empty exam rooms. Fricking ghost towns. He did several "critical level medical facilities" before he got shut down. So, yeah, if you got any proof otherwise, it would be good to see it.

When did this take place? I recall last spring when things were going crazy a number of hospitals closed to everything except covid patients so areas of the hospitals went unused. Waiting rooms would be empty because visitors were not allowed and because of this hallways would seem deserted. It's unlikely covid patients in large hospitals would be treated in exam rooms. They'd most likely be in negative pressure rooms that a bozo off the streets would not have access to. The last three Emergency Rooms I've been to were controlled access areas that you couldn't get into without being buzzed in.

Even in October when I was admitted the place looked deserted because visitors were not allowed. I was kind of spooky quiet.

 

[toddnjoyce]

How are COVID-19 deaths counted? It’s complicated

The MMWR study cited in the article was interesting. Counts were above the 2015 - 2019 averages with a decent majority being attributed to C-19. What I didn’t see is what criteria was being used to determine attribution. I’m sure it’s there, but I didn’t see it.

I have a healthy respect for the difference between died from vs died with; I don’t agree the two are analogous.

“What is added by this report?

Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths occurred from late January through October 3, 2020, with 198,081 (66%) excess deaths attributed to COVID-19. The largest percentage increases were seen among adults aged 25–44 years and among Hispanic or Latino persons.”

When you search for studies related to that group, JAMA Network has this data which offers a unique perspective.

“Findings In a cohort study of 5902 patients with positive COVID-19 diagnosis treated at a single academic medical center in New York, non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic patients had a higher proportion of more than 2 medical comorbidities and were more likely to test positive for COVID-19 compared with their non-Hispanic White counterparts. However, their survival outcomes were at least as good as those of their non-Hispanic White counterparts when controlling for age, sex, and comorbidities.”

Race, Ethnicity, Comorbidities, and Survival Among Patients with COVID-19

This cohort study investigates whether presenting comorbidities in patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in New York City differed by race/ethnicity and whether case fatality rates varied among different ethnic and racial groups controlling for presenting comorbidities and other risk factors.

jamanetwork.com

What we seem to know is that demographic has some complex data points.

 

[DubiousDan]

The MMWR study cited in the article was interesting. Counts were above the 2015 - 2019 averages with a decent majority being attributed to C-19. What I didn’t see is what criteria was being used to determine attribution. I’m sure it’s there, but I didn’t see it.

I have a healthy respect for the difference between died from vs died with; I don’t agree the two are analogous.

“What is added by this report?

Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths occurred from late January through October 3, 2020, with 198,081 (66%) excess deaths attributed to COVID-19. The largest percentage increases were seen among adults aged 25–44 years and among Hispanic or Latino persons.”

When you search for studies related to that group, JAMA Network has this data which offers a unique perspective.

“Findings In a cohort study of 5902 patients with positive COVID-19 diagnosis treated at a single academic medical center in New York, non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic patients had a higher proportion of more than 2 medical comorbidities and were more likely to test positive for COVID-19 compared with their non-Hispanic White counterparts. However, their survival outcomes were at least as good as those of their non-Hispanic White counterparts when controlling for age, sex, and comorbidities.”

Race, Ethnicity, Comorbidities, and Survival Among Patients with COVID-19

This cohort study investigates whether presenting comorbidities in patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in New York City differed by race/ethnicity and whether case fatality rates varied among different ethnic and racial groups controlling for presenting comorbidities and other risk factors.

jamanetwork.com

What we seem to know is that demographic has some complex data points.

There are a number of good articles out there but most are not easily understood. i had found one this morning detailing how covid kills and how it can attack various organ systems. It was pretty easy to ubderstand but now I can't find it. I should have bookmarked it then.

 

[jrbfishn]

How many people do yo think died as the result of covid? If you have more accurate numbers than the CDC please post them.

Because of or with? Big difference between the two.
Accurate numbers? You mean like the ones the CDC is not releasing?
You are right about that. I don't seem to have any more accurate numbers than they do.
Again, what are the base numbers for the claims? Without them, their claims are nothing but impressive talk and smoke and mirrors.
The years I have been here, I thought you were smarter than that.


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[jrbfishn]

No doubt your numbers are more accurate than any I can find but I'll leave these here:

Some totals on the left

Here you can find data for each state

We have been over this before. And you keep posting the same info just from different places.

Point blank, total number of deaths and total by cause listed on death certificate for 2019 and 2020. Just raw numbers. Demographics be damned.
Without those numbers, everything you posted is pure bullshit, fear mongering and have zero meaning.
So post those numbers.

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[ZX9RCAM]

Abbott launches Operation Lone Star after Biden policies lead to surge at southern border


https://www.mdjonline.com/neighbor_...cle_098d5ca1-d677-5f27-b4dd-718e030c4e97.html

 

[Texas42]

That is an excellent question. Got any pictures of those trailers, stuffed full? Share 'em if you got 'em. I, for one, am not buying it.
There was a guy on social media, who was going into all those overloaded, packed hospitals and got live video of....wait for it....crickets. Each time, security threw him out, but not before the empty waiting rooms were seen. Empty exam rooms. Fricking ghost towns. He did several "critical level medical facilities" before he got shut down. So, yeah, if you got any proof otherwise, it would be good to see it.

At the start of the pandemic, the our hospital was empty. People were scared to come near hospitals. Hospitals had severe lack of PPE and supplies to they limited care as much as possible. This is in like a year ago when we had basically no cases, little testing capability, and you were lucky to get a surgical mask.

The peaks in July and January were honestly The biggest shit show of stretched ED, ICU had Hospitalist i‘ve seen. We used our last high flow nasal cannula. I have to get administration approval to bring in an outside transfer for the past several months. Our %positive on our tests was 33% (now it is like 12%). Consider we tested EVERYONE regardless of symptoms. I really think our tests are pretty speciific but not as sensitive as I’d like (I think we have way more false negatives than positives).

Now, things are way way way better. Our COVID numbers are down. The number of employees out with covid dropped precipitously after most people got the vaccine that wanted one.

Also there is high frequency of morbidity (not just mortality) with COVID19 that we will deal with for a long time with chronic pulmonary disease/lung scaring, increased disability insurance.

 

[DubiousDan]

We have been over this before. And you keep posting the same info just from different places.

Point blank, total number of deaths and total by cause listed on death certificate for 2019 and 2020. Just raw numbers. Demographics be damned.
Without those numbers, everything you posted is pure bullshit, fear mongering and have zero meaning.
So post those numbers.

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What about the death certificates with multiple causes listed. In the exapmle below, ARDS is one of the most common causes of death with covid. While ARDS lead to death, ARDS was caused by covid.

 

[DubiousDan]

At the start of the pandemic, the our hospital was empty. People were scared to come near hospitals. Hospitals had severe lack of PPE and supplies to they limited care as much as possible. This is in like a year ago when we had basically no cases, little testing capability, and you were lucky to get a surgical mask.

The peaks in July and January were honestly The biggest shit show of stretched ED, ICU had Hospitalist i‘ve seen. We used our last high flow nasal cannula. I have to get administration approval to bring in an outside transfer for the past several months. Our %positive on our tests was 33% (now it is like 12%). Consider we tested EVERYONE regardless of symptoms. I really think our tests are pretty speciific but not as sensitive as I’d like (I think we have way more false negatives than positives).

Now, things are way way way better. Our COVID numbers are down. The number of employees out with covid dropped precipitously after most people got the vaccine that wanted one.

Also there is high frequency of morbidity (not just mortality) with COVID19 that we will deal with for a long time with chronic pulmonary disease/lung scaring, increased disability insurance.

Your experiences pretty much match the experiences my friends who are still working are having. I trust my friends way more than I do conspiracy nuts on social media.

 

[jrbfishn]

What about the death certificates with multiple causes listed. In the exapmle below, ARDS is one of the most common causes of death with covid. While ARDS lead to death, ARDS was caused by covid.

If the person got covid, then developed pneumonia and died of it, yup, covid death.
But, he also had kidney failure. Before covid. If that was being managed and he was otherwise healthy, again covid.
If he was on the verge of dieing because of acute kidney failure and in a weakened state, not so much. A cold, flu or pneumonia alone could have killed him anyway. Along with several other things. Kidney failure should be the primary cause of death. Covid didn't kill them, just helped the main illness do it a little faster.

As stated, nobody is denying that covid can kill or help kill vulnerable populations. That is not the issue.
What are the total base numbers that you and the CDC report basing figures on? Those are the only ones that matter. No percentage or claim is valid without those numbers.
Answer the question.


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[DubiousDan]

If the person got covid, then developed pneumonia and died of it, yup, covid death.
But, he also had kidney failure. Before covid. If that was being managed and he was otherwise healthy, again covid.
If he was on the verge of dieing because of acute kidney failure and in a weakened state, not so much. A cold, flu or pneumonia alone could have killed him anyway. Along with several other things. Kidney failure should be the primary cause of death. Covid didn't kill them, just helped the main illness do it a little faster.

As stated, nobody is denying that covid can kill or help kill vulnerable populations. That is not the issue.
What are the total base numbers that you and the CDC report basing figures on? Those are the only ones that matter. No percentage or claim is valid without those numbers.
Answer the question.


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Nope, kidney failure doesn't mean they are dying. I've been in stage 4 renal failure since 2013 after kidney cancer. My remaining kidney functions well enough that I don't need dialysis and if I manage my blood pressure and diabetes well enough I'm likely to die of something else. The patient had chronic renal failure and could have lived for years with it. The stresses of the covid and pneumonia on his kidneys most likely turned it into acute renal failure. Covid causes a cascading effect.

What base numbers are you talking about. The CDC and Johns Hopkins list the number of known covid cases and the number of people who have died from covid related causes. The CDC uses the numbers reported to them from the different states. You don't believe those numbers so please post the real numbers for us. I have no numbers to base anything on, I rely on the people who are tasked with collecting those numbers.

 

[cycleguy2300]

The excess death rate of the US is about 12%. 12% more people have died than should have.

Excess deaths show the true impact of COVID-19 in the U.S.

Assuming this is true, the final evaluation won't be complete until most covid deaths are gone and we can see if the excess death rate goes close to 0% (covid killed randomly) or goes strongly negative (covid killed people who where already on their way out)

Given that "covid" deaths in Travis County are close to the combined deaths from murders, suicides and crashes, I am still not too worried about it and think it is a scamdemic.

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[jrbfishn]

You keep circling back to the number of cases and the number of covid deaths. Unless you have the total number of deaths from all causes and the total number of deaths from categories used in previous years you have no valid comparison. No context. Just fear mongering and stupidity.
If he total deaths for 2020 followed average increases over 10 years, the was a projected number of dead between 2.8 and 3.2 million people. Unless the total is 3.4 or higher with no large drop in the major categories of cause of deaths, it was all a lie.
If the categories of major comorbidities stayed roughly the same or went up along with the total dead higher than expected, then it is as bad as they say.
If the totals, as well as the major categories, then it was a nothing burger. Lies and bullshit.

Post those numbers. I'll wait. They are the ones that matter.



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[jrbfishn]

Plain and simple.
CDC has the raw data of death totals at least a pretty good idea of those numbers. There is almost no way they could have the totals for covid and not have the others numbers. Demographics be damned. All those tell you is targeted groups. At this point, those do not matter in the overall lethality of covid.
Why are they not giving those numbers? The only logical answer, they do NOT want you to know. Period.
Case counts, especially the way they are counting cases, covid deaths, estimates and predictions have absolutely no meaning without the context of total deaths. Pure bullshit.


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[oldag]

That is an excellent question. Got any pictures of those trailers, stuffed full? Share 'em if you got 'em. I, for one, am not buying it.
There was a guy on social media, who was going into all those overloaded, packed hospitals and got live video of....wait for it....crickets. Each time, security threw him out, but not before the empty waiting rooms were seen. Empty exam rooms. Fricking ghost towns. He did several "critical level medical facilities" before he got shut down. So, yeah, if you got any proof otherwise, it would be good to see it.

For the first time, when I posted the graphic I STATED that I could not confirm the numbers. I think it's rather hilarious if it's true we can't get *2019* numbers this far into 2021, but it's Biden's America so who knows? The whole thing becomes almost a comedy. CDC: we don't actually have numbers to share for two whole years, but trust us...they are WAAAAYYYYYY up. Yeah. And if you like your doctor....
Oh, nevermind.
This is getting old and I am DONE with the whole thing. Masks, government overreach, six feet, face shields, Karens. ALL. Of. IT.
You want to be a scared sheep? Be a scared sheep. It's a free country.
Baaaa!

One county made a big deal of having a trailer. Turns out the local funeral home had an issue that was causing a backlog.

 

[toddnjoyce]

... Excess deaths show the true impact of COVID-19 in the U.S.

I’m not picking on or trying to be contentious, but this statement from the above article hits on a fundamental problem.

“the general public may be inclined to think of deaths as having one single cause and that's not the way we look at things as epidemiologists and public health people.”

Like a lot of technical fields, in medicine there’s difficulty taking complex subjects and translating them to easily understood lay statements. I really haven’t seen any organization, public or private, that’s truly been able to consistently convey to the public many important things about this event. That’s an utter failure in my opinion.

 

[DubiousDan]

At the start of the pandemic, the our hospital was empty. People were scared to come near hospitals. Hospitals had severe lack of PPE and supplies to they limited care as much as possible. This is in like a year ago when we had basically no cases, little testing capability, and you were lucky to get a surgical mask.

The peaks in July and January were honestly The biggest shit show of stretched ED, ICU had Hospitalist i‘ve seen. We used our last high flow nasal cannula. I have to get administration approval to bring in an outside transfer for the past several months. Our %positive on our tests was 33% (now it is like 12%). Consider we tested EVERYONE regardless of symptoms. I really think our tests are pretty speciific but not as sensitive as I’d like (I think we have way more false negatives than positives).

Now, things are way way way better. Our COVID numbers are down. The number of employees out with covid dropped precipitously after most people got the vaccine that wanted one.

Also there is high frequency of morbidity (not just mortality) with COVID19 that we will deal with for a long time with chronic pulmonary disease/lung scaring, increased disability insurance.

If you don't mind I'd like to ask some questions.

In your experience are the covid patients who are dying, mostly dying from ARDS, VAP or a combination?

Are there other causes that are seen frequently?

Are most of the patients that are dying intubated?

Are the ones who are not intubated that are dying not intubated because they refuse intubation?

Thanks


Rotor, if you can give feedback please do.

 

[DubiousDan]

You keep circling back to the number of cases and the number of covid deaths. Unless you have the total number of deaths from all causes and the total number of deaths from categories used in previous years you have no valid comparison. No context. Just fear mongering and stupidity.
If he total deaths for 2020 followed average increases over 10 years, the was a projected number of dead between 2.8 and 3.2 million people. Unless the total is 3.4 or higher with no large drop in the major categories of cause of deaths, it was all a lie.
If the categories of major comorbidities stayed roughly the same or went up along with the total dead higher than expected, then it is as bad as they say.
If the totals, as well as the major categories, then it was a nothing burger. Lies and bullshit.

Post those numbers. I'll wait. They are the ones that matter.



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I know you'll probably say it's fake but these are the best numbers I can find. When the CDC releases the total for 2020 I'll let you know.

US deaths in 2020 top 3 million

You'll note that the CDC numbers for 2020 only go through Sept. 2020 and at that time the total was already over 3,000,000. This number may be Sept. 2019 to Sept. 2020.

State and National Provisional Counts

This is the totals for 2019. I couldn't post a link that goes directly to this so I did a screen cap.

 

[DubiousDan]

I’m not picking on or trying to be contentious, but this statement from the above article hits on a fundamental problem.

“the general public may be inclined to think of deaths as having one single cause and that's not the way we look at things as epidemiologists and public health people.”

Like a lot of technical fields, in medicine there’s difficulty taking complex subjects and translating them to easily understood lay statements. I really haven’t seen any organization, public or private, that’s truly been able to consistently convey to the public many important things about this event. That’s an utter failure in my opinion.

I agree.

 

[rotor]

If you don't mind I'd like to ask some questions.

In your experience are the covid patients who are dying, mostly dying from ARDS, VAP or a combination?

Are there other causes that are seen frequently?

Are most of the patients that are dying intubated?

Are the ones who are not intubated that are dying not intubated because they refuse intubation?

Thanks


Rotor, if you can give feedback please do.

Here is the only help I can give.

My grandfather believed the moon was a ball of fire just like the sun and that the moon landing was a hoax. Obviously you are arguing with people of a similar mindset and no minds will be changed.
I personally have seen the medical effects of this "hoax" and although it is not as fatal as smallpox or rabies, it is more fatal than flu and the morbidity is significant. A close friend that went the intubation route in December is still in a rehab facility. I don't think he will ever be the same.