Executive Summary:
This little bit of data analysis appears to indicate that Californication is, in fact, a thing. It also appears that changes in the Texas political climate is being impacted by these migrants. While this isn't anywhere near strong enough of a case to show causation, what can be seen is positive correlation that where the refugees go, their politics follow them.
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Full length text
I keep going back to the question of 'how did Beto get so many votes?'. While there is a lot of anecdotal evidence in this thread; I have continuously hypothesized the negative impact due to domestic migration, primarily from California. It's one thing to be have an opinion, but it's something entirely different to see if there's any data that supports (or refutes) your opinion. With that in mind, I decide to do some research and data analysis.
First, let's start with facts. Since about 2005,over 8650,000 people relocated to Texas. Roughly half of those migrated from California, with a steady inflow of 60K+ per year from 2011 to 2015 alone. (Source, Published Feb 17, 2018; Accessed Nov 7, 2018)
Roughly 50% of those Californians wind up in Iron Triangle along I-10/I-45/I-35, primarily ending up in Travis, Williamson, Tarrant, Collin, Bexar, Ft Bend, and Harris counties.
Now, let's take a look at how those counties voted for Senator, first in the 2002 mid-terms, then again in the 2018 mid-terms, since both of those elections immediately followed a contentious presidential election; one pre-Californication, one post.
In the Red corner, you have Cornyn, and in the Blue you have Ron Kirk, who was somewhat popular at the time.
County R D
Bexar 183K 128K
Collin 88K 36K
Dallas 217K 224K
Fort Bend 49K 37K
Harris 337K 294K
Tarrant 195K 139K
Williamson 47K 26K
SubTotal 1.16M (57%) 884K (43%) Source
Statewide Total 2.49M (56%) 1.95M (44%) Source
Controlled for these counties, the race ends up being 1.33M (R - 63%)) to 1.06M (D - 44%) with a fairly representative vote across the state.
Yesterday's results for the same race:
County R D
Bexar 216K 324K
Collin 186K 164K
Dallas 240K 478K
Fort Bend 111K 141K
Harris 495K 692K
Tarrant 308K 312K
Williamson 99K 105K
SubTotal 1.65M (43%) 2.21M (57%)
Statewide Total 4.24M (51%) 4.01M (48%) Source
Controlled for the individual counties again, we see a tally of 2.59M (R - 59%) to 1.8M (D - 41%). We also see a completely different picture. Those counties serving essentially as resettlement zones flipped over a period of 16 years, while the rest of the state appears to have become more red.
This little bit of data analysis appears to indicate that Californication is, in fact, a thing. It also appears that changes in the Texas political climate is being impacted by these migrants. While this isn't anywhere near strong enough of a case to show causation, what can be seen is positive correlation that where the refugees go, their politics follow them.
And with that my friends, I rest my case.
This little bit of data analysis appears to indicate that Californication is, in fact, a thing. It also appears that changes in the Texas political climate is being impacted by these migrants. While this isn't anywhere near strong enough of a case to show causation, what can be seen is positive correlation that where the refugees go, their politics follow them.
-------------------
Full length text
I keep going back to the question of 'how did Beto get so many votes?'. While there is a lot of anecdotal evidence in this thread; I have continuously hypothesized the negative impact due to domestic migration, primarily from California. It's one thing to be have an opinion, but it's something entirely different to see if there's any data that supports (or refutes) your opinion. With that in mind, I decide to do some research and data analysis.
First, let's start with facts. Since about 2005,over 8650,000 people relocated to Texas. Roughly half of those migrated from California, with a steady inflow of 60K+ per year from 2011 to 2015 alone. (Source, Published Feb 17, 2018; Accessed Nov 7, 2018)
Roughly 50% of those Californians wind up in Iron Triangle along I-10/I-45/I-35, primarily ending up in Travis, Williamson, Tarrant, Collin, Bexar, Ft Bend, and Harris counties.
Now, let's take a look at how those counties voted for Senator, first in the 2002 mid-terms, then again in the 2018 mid-terms, since both of those elections immediately followed a contentious presidential election; one pre-Californication, one post.
In the Red corner, you have Cornyn, and in the Blue you have Ron Kirk, who was somewhat popular at the time.
County R D
Bexar 183K 128K
Collin 88K 36K
Dallas 217K 224K
Fort Bend 49K 37K
Harris 337K 294K
Tarrant 195K 139K
Williamson 47K 26K
SubTotal 1.16M (57%) 884K (43%) Source
Statewide Total 2.49M (56%) 1.95M (44%) Source
Controlled for these counties, the race ends up being 1.33M (R - 63%)) to 1.06M (D - 44%) with a fairly representative vote across the state.
Yesterday's results for the same race:
County R D
Bexar 216K 324K
Collin 186K 164K
Dallas 240K 478K
Fort Bend 111K 141K
Harris 495K 692K
Tarrant 308K 312K
Williamson 99K 105K
SubTotal 1.65M (43%) 2.21M (57%)
Statewide Total 4.24M (51%) 4.01M (48%) Source
Controlled for the individual counties again, we see a tally of 2.59M (R - 59%) to 1.8M (D - 41%). We also see a completely different picture. Those counties serving essentially as resettlement zones flipped over a period of 16 years, while the rest of the state appears to have become more red.
This little bit of data analysis appears to indicate that Californication is, in fact, a thing. It also appears that changes in the Texas political climate is being impacted by these migrants. While this isn't anywhere near strong enough of a case to show causation, what can be seen is positive correlation that where the refugees go, their politics follow them.
And with that my friends, I rest my case.
