Ukraine invasion

[cycleguy2300]

Really wonder why he stopped.

Not enough Russian troops joining him?

Did not like the taste of Russian airpower?

A little strange.

About as far as I'm willing to go with conspiracy theories is this was planned by putin to either:

1) Generate an excuse to back out of Ukriane

2) Place Wagner in Belarus to draw ZSU forces towards Kyiv and away from the front


I cannot think of anything the Belarusian leader could offer Prigozhin to have gotten him to stop. After what Prigozhin said about putin, I struggle to believe putin will be willing to just let it be water under the bridge.



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[cycleguy2300]

See, there you go, anybody who speaks ill of shitler is "left".
Funny how millions of former republicans are now to be considered "left".
Should we start a list of former highly regarded conservatives who fail to see the kings new clothes?

What the **** are you rambling about and how does it have to do with the Ukriane conflict?

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[Brains]

Let's hope it's the first option. Putin has shown the world how vulnerable the country is. Putin basically stated in his last address the reality - they're now fighting for the survival of Russia. If they feared a 25k force could topple Moscow, there is nothing left. Sure, they could fire off a nuke or two, but the end result would remain the same. Russia would end up belonging to someone else.

 

[cycleguy2300]

Let's hope it's the first option. Putin has shown the world how vulnerable the country is. Putin basically stated in his last address the reality - they're now fighting for the survival of Russia. If they feared a 25k force could topple Moscow, there is nothing left. Sure, they could fire off a nuke or two, but the end result would remain the same. Russia would end up belonging to someone else.

I think it showed how fully committed russia is in Ukraine AND how unstable putin's regime is, contrary to what some here have said.

I was particularly surprised at the lack of air power responding. A few helicopters isn't much of a much...

The largest city russia has captured in this war is the russian city of Rostov-on-Don...

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[oldag]

About as far as I'm willing to go with conspiracy theories is this was planned by putin to either:

1) Generate an excuse to back out of Ukriane

2) Place Wagner in Belarus to draw ZSU forces towards Kyiv and away from the front


I cannot think of anything the Belarusian leader could offer Prigozhin to have gotten him to stop. After what Prigozhin said about putin, I struggle to believe putin will be willing to just let it be water under the bridge.



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I have trouble with this being "staged" due to the number of aircraft Wagner took down. But I could be wrong.

 

[cycleguy2300]

I have trouble with this being "staged" due to the number of aircraft Wagner took down. But I could be wrong.

I'm with you... AND I don't see what putin would gain by looking even weaker than he already did.

But for the sake of argument...

It was only 3 helicopters (iirc) wagner shot down. They could have flown in SU-25 AND KA-52 (both cool af aircraft) from just about anywhere in russia and laid waste (assuming they have the capability) to the column, but instead there seemed to only be a few half-hearted efforts to stop them by digging a few ditched and a few dump trucks across the road.

It's just odd.
Had Prigozhin followed through, I'd have a lot fewer questions. He and putin have been buddies for years, so neither probably wanted to really have a showdown. Prigozhin initially asked mostly for a few generals to step down, then putin and the FSB said it was treason and Prigozhin said they could go too. Maybe he really is satisfied with the generals gone and putins promise to forgive... time will tell

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[oldag]

I'm with you... AND I don't see what putin would gain by looking even weaker than he already did.

But for the sake of argument...

It was only 3 helicopters (iirc) wagner shot down. They could have flown in SU-25 AND KA-52 (both cool af aircraft) from just about anywhere in russia and laid waste (assuming they have the capability) to the column, but instead there seemed to only be a few half-hearted efforts to stop them by digging a few ditched and a few dump trucks across the road.

It's just odd.
Had Prigozhin followed through, I'd have a lot fewer questions. He and putin have been buddies for years, so neither probably wanted to really have a showdown. Prigozhin initially asked mostly for a few generals to step down, then putin and the FSB said it was treason and Prigozhin said they could go too. Maybe he really is satisfied with the generals gone and putins promise to forgive... time will tell

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WSJ is reporting six Russian helicopters and an IL-22 airborne command-center plane, killing 13 airmen.

 

[cycleguy2300]

WSJ is reporting six Russian helicopters and an IL-22 airborne command-center plane, killing 13 airmen.

Oh dang. That seems more reasonable...

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[CavCop]

<>

The messages we are getting today from our media look very confused.

<>

Our media should have been echoing the CIA’s story… granted it fell flat.

 

[leVieux]

Our media should have been echoing the CIA’s story… granted it fell flat.

I’ve wondered if the recent changes in “WAGNER” were CIA-induced ?

 

[CavCop]

I’ve wondered if the recent changes in “WAGNER” were CIA-induced ?

Just about every major revolt is sponsored by the CIA. I learned as a young Infantryman, our job was to hunt down the monsters our CIA installed. Noriega, Saddam, Gaddafi, Bin Ladin, and dozens of other names most don’t know in Africa and South America. That’s just during my 22 years of service.
Wagner’s leadership spent a good amount of time in Africa, where we spent a lot of time and money that is overlooked by most. I don’t know if there is a country our CIA is not influencing picking future leaders. Granted Russia and China are hard for us to have any real influence on. We always have foreign groups we can fund and arm to kill others.

If people think Russia meddled in our elections, they must be clueless to how much we meddle in elections, including the 2005 election’s in Iraq among many others. “influence” might be how our CIA classifies it. America sure invested a lot in Ukraine…

 

[leVieux]

Just about every major revolt is sponsored by the CIA. I learned as a young Infantryman, our job was to hunt down the monsters our CIA installed. Noriega, Saddam, Gaddafi, Bin Ladin, and dozens of other names most don’t know in Africa and South America. That’s just during my 22 years of service.
Wagner’s leadership spent a good amount of time in Africa, where we spent a lot of time and money that is overlooked by most. I don’t know if there is a country our CIA is not influencing picking future leaders. Granted Russia and China are hard for us to have any real influence on. We always have foreign groups we can fund and arm to kill others.

If people think Russia meddled in our elections, they must be clueless to how much we meddle in elections, including the 2005 election’s in Iraq among many others. “influence” might be how our CIA classifies it. America sure invested a lot in Ukraine…

<>

Understood & Thanks.

<>

 

[oldag]

Just about every major revolt is sponsored by the CIA. I learned as a young Infantryman, our job was to hunt down the monsters our CIA installed. Noriega, Saddam, Gaddafi, Bin Ladin, and dozens of other names most don’t know in Africa and South America. That’s just during my 22 years of service.
Wagner’s leadership spent a good amount of time in Africa, where we spent a lot of time and money that is overlooked by most. I don’t know if there is a country our CIA is not influencing picking future leaders. Granted Russia and China are hard for us to have any real influence on. We always have foreign groups we can fund and arm to kill others.

If people think Russia meddled in our elections, they must be clueless to how much we meddle in elections, including the 2005 election’s in Iraq among many others. “influence” might be how our CIA classifies it. America sure invested a lot in Ukraine…

Dunno. You may be giving today's CIA too much credit.

 

[Kar98]

WSJ is reporting six Russian helicopters and an IL-22 airborne command-center plane, killing 13 airmen.

Let me clarify: that was a Ilyushin Il-22PP, a variant/further development of the Ilyushin 18, airborne command post plane:

Not the 1947 experimental jet bomber of which one prototype was built

 

[CavCop]

Dunno. You may be giving today's CIA too much credit.

Odd that Russia had no clue, but America knew. Unless America was in on it. But then we are always shocked and use these events to maximize propaganda and push for more funding and equipment as it’s a sign… a sign it was by design.

• June 24, 2023

American intelligence officials briefed senior military and administration officials on Wednesday that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the mercenary Wagner Group, was preparing to take military action against senior Russian defense officials, according to officials familiar with the matter.
U.S. spy agencies had indications days earlier that Mr. Prigozhin was planning something and worked to refine that material into a finished assessment, officials said.
The information shows that the United States was aware of impending events in Russia, similar to how intelligence agencies had warned in late 2021 that Vladimir V. Putin was planning to invade Ukraine.

U.S. Suspected Prigozhin Was Preparing to Take Military Action Against Russia

The information was considered both solid and alarming because of the possibility that a major nuclear-armed rival of the United States could descend into chaos.

www.nytimes.com

 

[cycleguy2300]

Dunno. You may be giving today's CIA too much credit.

While it could be the CIA was involved, "The CIA" seems too often used as the easy out and prevents evaluating people's internal motives akin to saying "it was the Illuminati" and risks missing lessons that could be used to predict, prevent and prepare for future events.

If I relate it to American elections, while I 100% believe there was tampering and rigging that got biden into the oval office, if every loss is attributed to "rigged" elections I will never learn and it is simply an excuse for my mistakes.

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[cycleguy2300]

Let me clarify: that was a Ilyushin Il-22PP, a variant/further development of the Ilyushin 18, airborne command post plane:

View attachment 393470

Not the 1947 experimental jet bomber of which one prototype was built

This:

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[cycleguy2300]

Ukraine is attempting to solidify their hold of the southern side of the Antonovsky bridge in Kherson (Херсон). Here is the russian take. They are calling for air support via Telegram... guess their radios don't work or they are hoping to get some attention.

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[General Zod]

Prigozhin must think he got a pretty good deal, living the rest of his days in Belarus sipping tea by an open window...


I wonder if he was smart enough to get a guarantee of how many days that would be before the tea or the window turn on him.

 

[cycleguy2300]

Cia can't pay the people to feel this way... this was an internally motivated move and given the generalship of Shugio and the other guy, I can see why.

Watch this! An interview with Prigozhin saying Moscow doesn't want to give more ammo because maybe he will attack Moscow.

t.me/liveukraine_media/10811


Here is some minor analysis.

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